Generic semaglutide market shows signs of excess inventory bulge

Distributors grapple with rising semaglutide inventory amid slower liquidation

India’s booming semaglutide market is already showing signs of inventory buildup barely two months after generic launches flooded the market, following an aggressive stocking push by drugmakers that had anticipated strong demand for the obesity and diabetes therapy.

 

Pharmarack data indicates elevated stock levels across several recently launched brands amid slower-than-expected liquidation in the trade channel. The slowdown reflects a cooling in demand after the initial launch rush, with doctors limiting prescriptions and new patients not being added at the same pace as earlier. This is because doctors have become more selective in prescribing obesity drugs, and regulators, including the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation, have increased oversight around their use. 

Distributors could begin returning stocks if liquidation does not improve over the next one to two months, particularly because semaglutide products require cold-chain storage and are occupying refrigerator space typically used for vaccines and insulin. 

Inventory data from Pharmarack, for May 2026, showed multiple generic semaglutide brands carrying more than 45 days of inventory, signalling an inventory overhang after the molecule went off patent earlier this year. 

Among the highest inventory levels, Dr Reddy’s Mashlo was carrying 71 days of inventory in May, while Glenmark Pharmaceuticals’ Glipiq had 69 days and Obeda 57 days. Mankind Pharma’s Semaglu was carrying 62 days of inventory, Abbott’s Extensior 51 days, while Zydus Lifesciences’ Mashema and Semaglyn had 53 days and 46 days of inventory, respectively. 

In contrast, innovator brands Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus from Novo Nordisk maintained lower inventory levels of 27 days, 24 days, and 22 days, respectively.  

Companies that entered the semaglutide market with annual sales targets of around ₹200 crore would likely have ensured sufficient inventory availability for at least the first six months after launch. 

However, monthly sales for most major players remain below the implied ₹20 crore run rate, suggesting that inventory was front-loaded into the channel while liquidation has yet to keep pace with initial expectations. “The stocks lying at distributor level are significant and there has already been an inventory pileup,” said Sheetal Sapale, vice-president (commercial), Pharmarack, adding that distributors are also facing cold-chain storage pressure because semaglutide products require refrigeration. 

A Mumbai-based pharma company executive, speaking on condition of anonymity, said companies typically stock inventory sufficient for four to six months after launch and the current trends are more reflective of evolving market dynamics in a newly launched and relatively niche therapy segment rather than a clear demand slowdown. 

Pricing actions by innovators, including price reductions that have brought products closer to their generic counterparts, may also be influencing prescription patterns. Despite some inventory buildup, the executive claimed that on-ground feedback continues to indicate healthy physician interest and sustained patient uptake. 

Some industry watchers also believe that the current demand-supply dynamics in the semaglutide market are likely to stabilise over time. “There may have been some inventory buildup in the last month, but that does not define the overall market,” said Nirali Shah, research analyst at Ashika Group. “Demand on the ground remains robust and patient uptake is expected to increase further in the coming months.” 

More than 50 branded versions of generic semaglutide were launched by Indian drugmakers in March 2026 following patent expiry, as companies sought to capitalise on strong demand for obesity and diabetes therapies. 

The broader market remains sizeable despite signs of inventory accumulation. According to Pharmarack data, India’s glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonist market, comprising semaglutide and tirzepatide products, expanded to about ₹1,906 crore in May 2026 from ₹565 crore a year earlier, driven largely by the launch of lower-cost generic semaglutide products after patent expiry. However, trade-channel checks suggest that while demand remains healthy, the pace of fresh patient onboarding may be moderating after the initial launch surge. 

Shehla Shaikh, endocrinologist at Saifee Hospital, said the initial surge in semaglutide prescriptions was driven by pent-up demand from patients who had previously been unable to access the therapy because of its high cost. With lower-priced Indian versions entering the market, many eligible patients were initiated on treatment simultaneously, leading to a sharp spike in prescriptions. 

However, she said that prescription growth is expected to gradually stabilise as the therapy becomes more targeted towards clinically appropriate patients requiring long-term treatment for diabetes and obesity. “Semaglutide is not a short-term therapy and requires careful monitoring, dose titration, and follow-up,” she said, adding that prescription volumes are likely to eventually plateau after the initial onboarding phase. 

The inventory buildup comes even as the broader GLP-1 market continues to expand rapidly. As reported earlier by Business Standard, growth in the segment has begun to moderate after the initial surge triggered by generic semaglutide launches, suggesting that the market may be entering a more sustainable phase of expansion.