India's power crunch tops summer levels as El Nino hits hydropower

Nighttime power shortfalls have reached 7.7 GW this month, while hydropower generation fell 12 per cent in September, pushing coal plants to run harder to meet demand

By Rajesh Kumar Singh

 

India’s peak power shortages have surpassed levels seen during this year’s summer heat waves as the potentially driest monsoon in 17 years crimps hydropower generation. 

Nighttime shortfalls have surged to as much as 7.7 gigawatts this month, exceeding levels seen in April-May when scorching summer temperatures drove electricity consumption to a record, data from India’s power ministry showed.

 

Hydropower generation fell 12 per cent from a year earlier in the first three weeks of September, putting it on course for a fifth straight monthly decline and forcing coal plants to shoulder more demand. Coal-fired production has climbed 18 per cent this month, and 11 per cent in the fiscal year so far, as plants run harder to meet the requirements from industries and cooling needs.

  

The strain on the power system follows deficient rainfall during India’s monsoon. A powerful El Niño has kept precipitation during the June to September season 15 per cent below normal levels. If the deficit persists, it would be the weakest monsoon since 2009.

 

New Delhi sees hydro as crucial for expanding its non-fossil fuel fleet, but its dependence on weather and the environmental and social challenges of building dams have slowed growth. Hydropower accounts for about 9 per cent of the country’s total generation capacity. Slow capacity growth in hydro and nuclear capacity, along with insufficient energy storage, is forcing greater reliance on coal.

 

The higher coal burn has depleted inventories at power plants to the lowest level in about three years as of Sept. 21. About 40 per cent of the 196 plants surveyed by the government had critical stockpiles of the fuel, with less than a quarter of their required inventories, data showed.

 

Plants located near mines, among the most economical generators, held only about half the required coal reserves, data showed.

 

Coal India Ltd. needs to accelerate shipments, particularly to those lower-cost plants that are facing supply crunch, said Rupesh Sankhe, senior vice president for research at Elara Capital India Pvt., adding that the railways must also provide adequate wagons to move the fuel. 

 

“We are not in a crisis yet, but the government needs to act fast to prevent one,” Sankhe said.