Oil industry in 2024: Varied outcomes expected across value chain

Come 2024, India's oil requirements are expected to continue to witness a healthy rise. Depending on which part of the value chain a company is, the year could prove a mixed bag. Offshore rig operators, for instance, are expected to command higher rentals owing to a mismatch in supply and demand.

According to rating agency Crisil, the supply of offshore rig fleet addition has not kept pace with the higher demand for crude oil exploration and production, leading to a spike in global day rates for such rigs. At the same time, the cost to move oil, however, may taper, with charter rates for crude and product tankers expected to moderate in FY25, after seeing a correction in FY24 . According to the rating agency, the correction in tanker rates in owing to easing of Covid-related supply chain constraints, however the recent attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea remains a monitorable.

India's oil demand to remain high

 

India's oil demand	Million Barrels/day
2022	5.14
2023	5.37
2024 (Estimated)	5.59
Source: OPEC, December 2023 report.

Costs to transport crude oil may moderate

Charter Rates for crude and Product tankers	$/day
FY23	50,000
FY24*	37500- 40,000
FY25	Moderate, but >15,000-25,000

Source: CRISIL, *Number arrived at through a calculation of suggested 20-25% dip in rates.


Costs to explore and produce crude oil may rise

weighted average day rates for offshore rigs	$/day
FY23	35,000-40,000
FY24	47,000
FY25	60,000

Source: CRISIL