Over 35 GW renewable capacity may face grid curtailment in FY27: Crisil

Crisil warns over 35 GW renewable capacity may face curtailment in FY27 due to slow transmission rollout, with TGNA projects bearing the bulk of the risk

Rapid increase in renewable energy capacity has increased the risk of evacuating surplus power, especially during the daytime, with 35 gigawatt capacity facing the risk of grid curtailment in FY27 amid slow deployment of transmission infrastructure, according to Crisil.

 

The ratings agency said projects without dedicated transmission infrastructure, called temporary general network access (TGNA), faced 80 per cent of the total curtailment in India between April and December 2025.

 

Between November 2025 and February 2026, these projects had nearly 39 per cent of their capacities curtailed. Rajasthan and Gujarat, which account for 45 per cent of the country’s total renewable energy generation capacity, face the most curtailment. Capacity of 13–14 GW suffered higher curtailment of up to 50 per cent, it said.

   

Apart from TGNA, another type of network access, called long-term general network access (LT-GNA), has dedicated transmission infrastructure, multi-year access to the grid and stronger scheduling rights. TGNA faces a higher risk of curtailment as it provides time-bound access to the transmission network.

 

“We project about 20 GW of fresh ISTS RE capacity to be commissioned and starting on TGNA in 2026–27. This, with existing capacity with TGNA of nearly 17 GW as of February 2026, may result in RE capacity exposed to curtailment risk reaching 35–37 GW in 2026–27,” said Ankit Hakhu, director, Crisil.

 

However, with ongoing transmission expansion projects coming online, capacities currently on TGNA are likely to convert to LT-GNA by the end of fiscal 2027, he added.

 

An average curtailment of 50 per cent over 12 months can impact an entity’s ability to cover debt obligations, reducing the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) by up to 10 basis points (bps) and the equity internal rate of return (IRR) by up to 150 bps.

 

However, the government is addressing the issue in the medium to long term. Policy measures such as hour-split access allow solar capacities to access the grid only during solar hours, freeing up access for wind and storage projects during non-solar hours. Increasing battery energy storage system adoption will help improve transmission network utilisation over time.