Shell projects India's gas demand rising over 50% in the next decade

Shell India expects gas demand in India to rise 50 per cent or more in the next decade, supporting reliability during renewables scale-up, meeting industrial and domestic residential needs, and serving artificial intelligence (AI)-driven electricity demand growth, the company said in a report launched on Wednesday.

 

India’s energy demand rose nearly 40 per cent over the past decade, driven by economic and population growth, the report said. Shell expects demand to continue accelerating, with India’s energy consumption projected to surpass that of the US in the 2040s and China in the 2060s. 

Natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are positioned as transition fuels, supporting grid stability amid expanding solar and wind capacity, meeting industrial and residential needs, and catering to growing power demand from digital infrastructure and data centres. 

 

The report also emphasises that renewables could supply 59 per cent or more of electricity by 2050. Low-carbon fuels will play a major role in India’s future energy mix, especially for hard-to-electrify sectors, with strong domestic bioenergy potential and supportive policies driving future growth, it added.

 

Transport electrification in India is expected to accelerate steadily, with electric vehicle (EV) adoption rising across vehicle categories, displacing the equivalent of 41 per cent of oil demand in 2050 in Archipelagos, 53 per cent in Surge and 58 per cent in Horizon, compared to the same distance being travelled by internal combustion vehicles, the report said.

 

According to the report, Archipelagos describes a world shaped by conflict, migration and disrupted trade, where countries prioritise national security and self-reliance. Surge envisions strong AI-led economic growth that lifts energy demand, with energy security tied to technological and economic strength amid global competition. Horizon charts a climate-focused pathway to net zero by 2050, with rapid clean energy deployment and carbon management to limit warming to 1.5°C.

 

“Buildings shift towards cleaner energy, with electrification and natural gas use expanding in residential use, reflecting a broad shift away from traditional biomass. Energy use in commercial buildings rises two to four times across scenarios, driven by services and fast-growing demand from data centres,” the report added.