GIFT Nifty hints at negative opening for equities; all eyes on US-Iran nuclear negotiations

GIFT Nifty:

GIFT Nifty February 2026 futures were down 43 points, suggesting a negative start for the Nifty 50 today.

Meanwhile, Indias merchandise trade deficit surged to $34.68 billion in January, up from $25.04 billion in December, according to government export and import data released on Monday. The sharp rise was largely driven by higher imports of gold and silver.

Merchandise exports fell to $36.56 billion in January from $38.51 billion in December. Imports, however, rose to $71.24 billion from $63.55 billion.

Institutional Flows:

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 972.13 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,666.98 crore in the Indian equity market on 16 February 2026, provisional data showed.

 

The FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 2,345.69 crore in the cash market so far in February (till 13 February 2026). This follows their cash sales of Rs 41,435.22 crore in January 2026 and Rs 34,349.62 crore in December.

Global Markets:

Asian markets treaded carefully on Tuesday.

Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea markets were closed on Tuesday for Lunar New Year holidays. U.S markets were shut on Monday for Presidents Day.

Japans weakening economy remained in focus on Tuesday, one day after much softer than expected GDP numbers.

The country on Monday reported its economy grew an annualised 0.2% in the fourth quarter, far below the widely reported gain forecast of 1.6% as government spending dragged on activity. In today's session, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.15% against the greenback to 153.28 per dollar.

The weak figures highlight the challenges ahead for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and should support her push for more aggressive fiscal stimulus, media reports said.

The Bank of Japan next meets on rates in March, with traders forecasting only a slim chance for a hike. Widely reported polls in the media suggest that investors expect the central bank to wait until July before tightening policy again.

Meanwhile, oil saw some price gains as investors looked ahead to the U.S and Iran nuclear negotiations that are scheduled to being in Geneva later in the day.

The higher volatility in crude was triggered by the latest drill that was reportedly held by Irans Revolutionary Guards in the Hormuz Strait on Monday. The passage accounts for about 20% of global oil shipments.

Domestic Market:

Benchmark equity indices finished firmly higher on Monday, buoyed by robust buying in banks and financial counters. The Nifty reversed its two-day slide and settled above the 25,650 mark after a sharp intraday recovery.

The session began on a cautious note amid mixed global signals, with the Nifty slipping to 25,372.70 in early trade. However, strong domestic buying quickly reversed the trend, triggering a steady upmove through the day. Gains gathered momentum in the latter half of the session, lifting the index to an intraday high of 25,697 before it closed near the days peak.

The S&P BSE Sensex, jumped 650.39 points or 0.79% to 83,277.15. The Nifty 50 index rallied 211.65 points or 0.83% to 25,682.75. The 50-unit index fell 1.86% in the past two sessions.

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