Crypto outlook tied to regulation, liquidity, maturation: SB Seker, Binance

SB Seker, head of APAC at Binance, said the outlook of the crypto markets hinges on regulation, liquidity and market maturation

Crypto markets in 2026 are navigating a mix of macro headwinds, tighter liquidity conditions, and an evolving regulatory landscape, said SB Seker, head of APAC at Binance. In an email interview with Kumar Gaurav, Seker said the outlook is increasingly tied to regulation, liquidity, and market maturation, with clearer risk-proportionate frameworks for virtual asset service providers (VASPs), including licensing standards, custody rules, client asset segregation, and tax alignment, seen as key to improving predictability and supporting long-term market development.

What factors are acting as headwinds for the crypto market?

We see three headwinds: Macro uncertainty with restrictive rate expectations keeping risk budgets tight; ongoing compliance upgrades as global frameworks evolve; and a shift away from speculation toward demonstrable utility. While volatility remains, the ecosystem continues maturing. Total crypto market cap surpassed $4 trillion in 2025, with institutional participation expanding through ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and tokenised assets.

 

Has Bitcoin's decline impacted trading volumes, and do you expect volumes to pick up in the coming months even if BTC remains range-bound? If so, why?

Volumes moderate during price compression—that's natural. But structural engagement matters more. Binance reported year-on-year institutional volume increases and 210 per cent growth in OTC fiat trading in 2025, showing participation broadening beyond short-term speculation.

 

We expect volume recovery even in a range-bound market for two reasons. First, regulatory clarity is accelerating across the US, EU, and Asia, lowering institutional friction. Second, product expansion—tokenised equities, perpetuals on traditional indices, and RWA tokenisation. Stablecoins exceeding $300 billion support sustained activity regardless of BTC price movement.

What catalysts could revive institutional interest in the second half of 2026?

Three catalysts stand out. First, regulatory clarity—the US GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, MiCA in Europe, and Asian licensing regimes provide certainty institutions need to scale. Second, infrastructure maturation—RWA tokenisation, institutional custody, and over 1.07 million BTC held by 174 public companies and ETFs anchor fundamentals-driven valuation. Third, diversification beyond BTC and ETH as liquidity and compliance tooling improve. AI-blockchain convergence and growing government engagement further reinforce digital assets as core allocations, not satellite positions.

How important is India to Binance's APAC growth strategy?

India is a strategic priority. It's ranked first globally for three consecutive years in crypto adoption, driven by young demographics, 80 per cent+ mobile penetration, and uniform adoption across tier-1 to tier-4 cities. Our approach is long-term and compliance-first. Following FIU-IND registration, we focus on meeting local requirements, strengthening user protection, and working closely with law enforcement. We're investing in education and responsible adoption, building a sustainable ecosystem through compliance, collaboration, and long-term engagement.

What measures have had the biggest impact on crypto traders in India?

Tax policy has had the most direct day-to-day impact, particularly the 1 per cent TDS mechanism and the tax treatment of virtual digital asset gains. For active traders, TDS can affect capital efficiency and trading frequency because it changes how quickly capital can be reused.

 

Separately, higher compliance expectations across the industry have increased the importance of using platforms that meet local requirements, especially for users who prioritise transparency and continuity of access.

What kind of regulatory framework would global exchanges like Binance like to see from Indian policymakers to unlock the next phase of growth?

A clear, risk-proportionate framework defining VASP roles would create predictability. The FIU-IND structure provides an important AML/CFT foundation; a broader licensing framework could add clarity on operating standards.

 

Smart regulation protects users, prevents money laundering, and gives legitimate businesses a clear path forward. Defined guidelines on custody, client asset segregation, consumer protection, and market conduct standards would help.

 

Tax calibration maintaining traceability while reducing friction for compliant activity would support healthier domestic liquidity.

Beyond trading, which segments—such as stablecoins, tokenisation, payments, or Web3 infrastructure—offer the biggest growth opportunities in Asia over the next three to five years?

We expect the next three to five years in Asia to be defined by utility and the integration of blockchain rails into real-economy activity.

 

First, RWA tokenisation, which has more than tripled since 2025, reaching $19.3B by the end of Q1 2026. CEXs are also leading adoption with dedicated TradFi strategies that improve access to trading these assets.

 

Second, stablecoins as lower-friction settlement tools, with supply exceeding $300 billion. By expanding the financial products on crypto exchanges, the financial utility of stablecoins extends well beyond crypto trading and payments. TradFi-linked perpetuals already account for roughly 10 per cent of stablecoin trading volume, with direct stock trading set to deepen this further. Stablecoins are emerging as a preferred settlement layer for investors seeking continuous, 24/7 exposure to equity markets.

 

Third, Web3 infrastructure including layer-2 ecosystems, enabling scalable consumer and enterprise applications.

 

Asia's scale, mobile-first demographics, and progressive regulation make it where this transition will be most visible.