Dabur India stock surges 4% after Q4 results; should investors buy now?

Dabur India shares climbed nearly 4 per cent on Friday after Q4FY26 results. Most rokerages retained ratings & targets and highlighted improving India business growth despite execution concerns

Dabur India shares gained 3.7 per cent to close at ₹487.60 on the BSE on Friday, despite the Sensex slipping 0.66 per cent, as analysts appreciated the company’s in-line results for the fourth quarter of financial year 2025-26 (Q4FY26), which were driven by a healthy growth in India business. Though they believe the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company may see a broad-based demand recovery ahead, they remain wary of the outlook due to the firm’s poor execution record. 

As a result, most brokerages maintained their ratings and share price targets on Dabur India stock, while marginally increasing their earnings estimates. 

 

“Revenue growth improved modestly to 5 per cent in FY26, after delivering 1.3 per cent growth in FY25... While we remain positive on India consumption, Dabur’s historical weak execution remains concerning to us,” said Motilal Oswal Financial Services in a note. 

Consolidated revenue of Dabur India grew around 7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q4FY26, led by India business revenue growth of 10 per cent. The Home & Personal Care (HPC) vertical posted revenue growth of 17 per cent, the Healthcare portfolio grew around 4 per cent, and the Food and Beverages (F&B) segment improved 3 per cent Y-o-Y. 

Given the company’s HPC vertical saw a demand recovery in the second half (H2) of FY26, management expects this momentum to continue. It also expects Beverages to recover with a better summer season and a lower price differential versus carbonated drinks. It has, thus, revised its India business revenue guidance from high single digits to low double digits. 

Notably, the firm’s India business volume grew 6 per cent (versus 3 per cent in Q3FY26) where rural markets continued to outpace urban consumption by around 350 basis points (bps). 

Global brokerage Nomura noted that Dabur’s India volume growth was lower than its peers’ volume growth of 9 per cent for Marico and 8 per cent for Godrej Consumer Products, despite a low base. 

International business remains volatile in near-term given geopolitical disruptions in West Asia, though underlying growth across most regions continues to be healthy, the management said. 

Meanwhile, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) increased 8.2 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹461.8 crore, and reported net profit jumped 15.1 per cent to ₹368.6 crore. Ebitda margin remained flat Y-o-Y at 15.2 per cent. 

ICICI Securities upgraded the stock to “add” from “hold”, believing the company could be entering a relatively better phase of growth execution, with India FMCG volume growth improving and recovery now becoming broad-based. 

“We believe Dabur’s outlook is improving as HPC momentum remained strong, aided by volume growth and price hike, alongside market share gains; underlying healthcare trends improved; quick commerce salience within e-commerce increased sharply to around 75 per cent from around 50 per cent; and gross margin expansion despite elevated inflation and continued brand investments,” the brokerage noted. It added that while inflationary pressures remain elevated, improving growth breadth and healthy April trends support a relatively better outlook versus earlier quarters. 

ICICI Securities increased its earnings estimates by 4.1 per cent for FY27 and 5.5 per cent for FY28. 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services, however, maintained its “neutral” rating and target price of ₹475 as it believes Dabur’s performance remains sensitive to macro recovery, particularly rural demand. It maintained its EPS (earnings per share) estimates for FY27 and FY28, saying that general macro inflation and monsoon will be key monitorables for its FY27 performance. 

Nomura, too, maintained its “Buy” rating with a target of ₹600, increasing FY27-FY28 EPS estimates by 1 per cent. 

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