Dabur slips 4% on releasing Q3 business update; here's what analysts say

Dabur, overall, expects consolidated revenue to grow in the mid-single digits, with operating profit and Profit after Tax (PAT) to grow ahead of revenue.

Dabur India reported its Q3FY26 business update on Monday, after market hours. The company, overall, expects consolidated revenue to grow in the mid-single digits, with operating profit and Profit after Tax (PAT) to grow ahead of revenue. 

 

“Favourable macroeconomic conditions and recent tax reforms are expected to support a sustained recovery in demand and improvement in revenue trajectory in the coming quarters,” the company said.  At 9:18 AM, Dabur shares were trading lower by 2.88 per cent at ₹506.25 per share. Intra-day the stock fell 3.5 per cent, logging day's low at ₹502.6 per share. In comparison, BSE Sensex was down 0.18 per cent at 85,283.69. 

 

Dabur Q3 update details: 

During the quarter, it witnessed early signs of demand recovery, aided by goods and services tax (GST) rate revisions. In the month of October 2025, distributors and retailers focused on liquidating the existing higher-priced inventory in the channel. 

 

Post-trade stabilisation, consumer sentiment improved in urban and rural areas. Rural demand continued to outperform urban demand this quarter as well.

 

Within the India business, Dabur expects the home and personal care business to grow in double digits on the back of strong growth in hair oils and the oral care category. The majority of the company’s portfolio continued to outpace category growth and is expected to register market share gains during the quarter, according to its filing. 

 

Dabur expects healthcare to witness a sequential improvement in the growth trajectory, supported by nearly 10 per cent growth in Dabur Honey and 15 per cent Y-o-Y growth in both Honitus and Health Juices. The Hajmola franchise and Ethicals portfolio are likely to post mid-single-digit growth. While primary sales growth for Dabur Chyawanprash is expected to be muted, secondary sales remain positive, supporting potential market share gains. Aided by an extended winter, the company expects Chyawanprash to gain momentum in the month of January 2026. 

 

Overall, the healthcare business is expected to report low single-digit growth. Within F&B, Culinary business is expected to record double-digit growth. The Beverages, Nectars & Drinks portfolio is expected to report muted performance due to adverse seasonality. 

 

However, its strategy of focusing on the premium ‘Real Activ’ range is working well with this portfolio expected to report growth of 30 per cent each in 100 per cent Activ juices and Coconut water. The beverage portfolio registered market share gains during the quarter, indicating sustained consumer confidence in the 'Real' brand. In terms of channels, organised trade will maintain its strong growth momentum with E-commerce, including quick commerce, expected to grow in strong double-digits. 

 

In International business, key geographies like MENA, Turkey, Namaste and Bangladesh have performed well. Consequently, Dabur expects overall international business to post near double-digit growth in INR terms.   CATCH STOCK MARKET LIVE UPDATES TODAY

Brokerages’ view on Dabur 

Nomura | Buy | Target: ₹580

The brokerage believes Dabur’s revenue expectation, though largely in-line, is weak because, despite a low base year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter (Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q), expected winter loading in Q3, and a harsh winter, sales growth still appears to have been likely impacted, and improvement seems delayed.

 

The brokerage estimates India sales growth to be 5.3 per cent Y-o-Y led by low-single-digit volume growth, with consolidated sales having grown 6 per cent Y-o-Y for Q3.

Centrum Institutional Research | Buy | Target: ₹625

Centrum believes Dabur’s quarterly update was mixed. The key positives are early signs on demand pick-up with rural growing ahead of urban, where Dabur is relatively over-indexed as against peers, double-digit growth in home and personal care with market share gains in hair oil and oral care, international business saw sequential pick-up in growth and operating profit growth ahead of topline growth, resulting in Ebitda Margin expansion. 

 

The negatives in the quarterly update are largely on muted secondary sales performance in the Chyawanprash portfolio, despite favourable weather for the category, a weak base and continued weak performance in the beverage portfolio. 

 

For Q2FY26, the brokerage estimates revenue/ Ebitda/Adjusted PAT growth of 5 per cent/5.9 per cent/6.4 per cent Y-o-Y with gross/ Ebitda margins expanding by 64/18 basis points (bps) Y-o-Y to 48.7 per cent/20.5 per cent respectively. 

Antique Stock Broking | Hold | Target: ₹530

Analysts have built in revenue/ Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda)/ earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8 per cent/ 11 per cent during FY25-28E led by a favorable base (muted volume growth during FY23-25), improving saliency of home & personal care (HPC) and healthcare, and innovative launches and focus on premiumisation. 

 

Antique expects the de-rating of the stock to sustain, given the lack of growth catalysts.

 

Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers discretion is advised.