Elara pegs FY27 Nifty target at 30,000, sees earnings-driven gains

Elara Capital sees nearly 17 per cent upside in the Nifty by FY27, with the next phase of market gains expected to be driven by corporate earnings growth rather than valuation expansion

Elara Capital has set a Nifty target of 30,000 for the financial year ending March 2027, nearly a 17 per cent upside from current levels.

 

The brokerage believes the outlook for the next two years will be shaped more by an improvement in corporate earnings than by any meaningful expansion in valuations.

 

After a subdued start to FY26, Nifty earnings are expected to compound at 14–15 per cent through FY27 and FY28, the brokerage said.

 

The brokerage estimates Nifty earnings per share to rise from an estimated ₹1,096 in FY26 to ₹1,281 in FY27 and ₹1,463 in FY28, translating into earnings growth of about 17 per cent in FY27 and 14 per cent in FY28. 

 

Elara expects the recovery to be supported by a softer earnings base and a combination of macro and policy triggers, including double-digit nominal GDP growth in FY27, a slower pace of fiscal consolidation alongside continued pro-consumption measures, and a benign interest-rate environment with supportive liquidity conditions.

 

FY26 earnings, however, are expected to remain under pressure due to pricing fatigue in consumer staples and healthcare, subdued growth in IT services amid weak global demand, and regulated returns in utilities. As rate-cut transmission improves, consumption recovers and operating leverage kicks in, earnings growth is expected to re-accelerate meaningfully from FY27, Elara said.

 

The brokerage has also flagged a sharp improvement in the breadth of earnings growth. In FY26, only four sectors — consumer discretionary, telecom, energy and materials — are expected to post double-digit profit growth, indicating a narrow, cyclical-led recovery.

 

By FY27, the number of sectors delivering double-digit profit growth is expected to rise to seven, with industrials (17 per cent), consumer staples (11 per cent) and financials (11 per cent) joining materials and discretionary. This, Elara said, would signal a more balanced and sustainable recovery. 

NSE retail shareholders now at 171,563 

The number of public shareholders in unlisted National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) have risen to 183,621, up 8,600 in a quarter. Of these, retail investors account for 171,563 shareholders at the end of 2025, up from 163,478 as of September 2025. Retail shareholders now hold around 12.3 per cent in the exchange. Shares of NSE have gained in the unlisted market after Tuhin Kanta Pandey, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board of India indicated that a no-objection certificate to file for an IPO may be granted this month. The shares have jumped to ₹2,095 apiece, up from ₹1,975 in just a week, according to the data on UnlistedZone.