Gujarat Fluorochemicals: Analysts raise target, see 39% upside; do you own?

Analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities (Nuvama) remain bullish on Gujarat Fluorochemicals (GFL), raising its target, after the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) recommended anti-dumping duties (ADD) on imports of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) from China and Russia. 

 

The levy, set in the range of $2,884 per tonne to $5,933 per tonne, is expected to create a level playing field for India’s largest PTFE producer and strengthen its domestic competitiveness.

 

Calling the DGTR move a “significant positive” for GFL, analysts have revised Gujarat Fluorochemicals' earnings forecasts upward, hiking FY26E/27E/28E earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 4.9 per cent/7.4 per cent/6.9 per cent respectively. 

 

 

“Consequently, we are revising up FY26E/27E/28E EPS by 4.9 per cent/7.4 per cent/6.9 per cent. In light of this positive structural shift, we maintain ‘Buy’ on GFL with a revised target price of ₹5,298 per share (up from ₹4,940),” said Archit Joshi and Rohan Ohri of Nuvama, in a note dated September 22. The new target price reflects an upside potential of 39.3 per cent.  Track Stock Market Live Updates 

Domestic leadership, global scale

 

The company controls a dominant 35-40 per cent share of India’s PTFE market, equivalent to around 3,000 tonnes annually. In FY25, India imported 5,253 tonnes of PTFE, nearly 60 per cent from China and Russia at lower realisations of $6-6.5 per kg, versus the domestic market’s $7.1 per kg. Analysts say the ADD will “narrow the pricing gap, enhance domestic competitiveness and stabilise realisations for GFL.”

 

Globally, Gujarat Fluorochemicals operates with a capacity of 21,000 tonnes per annum, accounting for about 8-9 per cent of world share. Its business is largely export-driven, with an 80:20 export-to-domestic mix in FY25. Export realisations stood at $10.2 per kg, much higher than domestic levels of $6.2 per kg. This mix is projected to tilt further to 85:15 in FY26, as steady domestic volumes combine with premium export pricing to support margins.

 

Accident impact limited

 

Separately, a recent gas leak at the company’s R-32 facility in Ranjitnagar triggered a temporary production halt. However, there was no explosion or structural damage, and operations are expected to resume soon. Analysts noted that any business loss is covered under Gujarat Fluorochemicals’ Industrial All-Risk (IAR) policy, ensuring no material earnings impact.

 

That said, analysts argue the combination of ADD protection, strong export positioning, and resilient operations makes Gujarat Fluorochemicals a compelling play in India’s chemicals space.

 

On the bourses, Gujarat Fluorochemicals’ stock is trading 28.25 per cent below its 52-week high of ₹4,875, which it had hit on October 17, 2024. Over the past month, the stock has gained 13.41 per cent, risen 15.18 per cent in the last three months, but remains down 9.7 per cent over the past year.