HDFC Bank tests 100-MMA for first time ever; tech analysts decode move

HDFC Bank stock is testing its 100-month moving average - an eight-year mean - for the first time in its 30-year history; the ₹700-mark is key support to watch, says technical analyst, Drumil Vithlani

HDFC Bank stock has witnessed a tumultuous 2026 to say the least. The stock has plunged nearly 27 per cent to a low of ₹707 in August from levels of ₹967 at the start of the year. In comparison, the Nifty 50 and the Bank Nifty are down 8 per cent and 3.7 per cent thus far in 2026. On Monday, HDFC Bank gained 2.7 per cent to a high of ₹739.50. As of 10:40 AM, the stock pared gain, and traded 0.8 per cent higher at ₹726. Despite the gains, the stock stands on the verge of logging its sixth monthly loss, out of the eight calendar months thus far in 2026. ALSO READ | Why HDFC Bank stock rallied over 2% in Monday's trade? Analysts take In the process, the stock is seen trading near its 100-month moving average (100-MMA), which stands at ₹686, for the first time ever in its 30-year history. The stock listed in May 1995. Drumil Vithlani, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Tiny Epic notes that HDFC Bank is testing its 100-MMA — an eight-year mean of price — for the first time ever. "Through the 2020 crash and the post-merger drawdown, the stock always held above this line; reaching it now marks a reset of the long-term trend, not a routine dip," says Vithlani. ALSO READ | ​HDFC Bank stock awaits leadership clarity before charting course: Analysts That apart, the monthly chart shows that HDFC Bank has been trading below its 20-MMA for the last seven months, since February 2026. The stock has also been trading below, both, its 20- and 50-MMAs since March 2026 for the last six months - its longest streak April 2009. Historical charts, show the stock traded below both these averages for three months from January 2009 - March 2009. Technical view on HDFC Bank by analysts HDFC Bank breakdown cascaded in sequence: the daily 200-day moving average (DMA) broke first (January 2026), the monthly 20- and 50-MMAs followed, and the deepest long-term average is under test now, says Drumil Vithlani. 

 

 

  The analyst believes that with the stock defending its eight-year mean, ₹700-mark becomes the make-or-break support level. Adding that as long as the stock holds, the base stays intact for accumulation on strength. He flags that a decisive break below would shifts the structure lower and warrant caution. "The 100-MMA lines up with the ₹700-730 base and the 52-week-low zone — a confluence floor. The recent bounce, with the stochastic turning up from oversold, is a first-touch reflex, but counter-trend: the 200-DMA still slopes down in the mid-800s, roughly 15 per cent overhead. Structure stays lower-high, lower-low until price reclaims it," explains Vithlani. Meanwhile, Anand James, Chief Market Strategies at Geojit Investments reckons that the current gain in the HDFC Bank stock seems to be a mere pullback from the support zone. The analyst notes that while select key momentum oscillators are showing some encouraging signs, the price action remains limited. "The stock is likely to remain tepid as long as it trades below ₹745, whereas the ₹700-mark on the downside remains the major support," says James.  Disclaimer: Views and outlook shared on the stock belong to the respective brokerages and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised.