Net-zero emissions and how can the world get there?

At the climate change conference earlier this year, the US and Europe pledged to cut emissions to zero by 2050, while China promised to do it by 2060. India surprised everyone by promising to achieve this target by 2070.

Net-zero, also called as carbon-neutrality, refers to the balance between the amount of greenhouse gas produced and the amount removed from the atmosphere. This absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere happens through carbon sinks, such as an increased forest cover. 

Removal of these dangerous gasses from the atmosphere is done through advanced technologies, such as carbon capture and storage. 

Several stringent measures will have to be taken to achieve this net zero target. For this, all the human-caused emissions have to be brought down drastically. It will need long term measures like replacing fossil fuels with cleaner energy.

For example, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will have to be replaced with electric vehicles. India’s coal-powered electricity grid should be balanced with renewable energy sources such as hydel power, solar and green hydrogen.

The remaining greenhouse gas emissions should be balanced with an equivalent amount of carbon removal. Carbon can be absorbed or removed either by restoring forests or using direct air capture and storage (DACS) technology.

Developing countries such as India have argued that the major burden of reducing emissions should fall on western countries such as the US and European countries, who’ve been the major beneficiaries of the industrial revolution and are hence, the most responsible for climate change. 

They have also argued that developed countries should help developing nations with the funds needed to shift to cleaner fuels and energy technologies.

There are a lot of dimensions to achieving the net-zero emissions target. Changes across our policies, technologies and behaviours are needed for the world to become carbon-neutral. 

To contain global warming at 1.5 C, energy efficiency and fuel-switching measures are critical for the transportation sector. Plus, everything from reducing food loss and waste, increasing public transport, eating more plants and less meat, and halting deforestation will be significant contributors for the world to become carbon neutral. 

India has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 33-35% by 2030, a target it says it is well on track to achieving. Recently, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) did a study for Shell that focused on technology solutions for India to move to net zero in the energy sector by 2050. 

According to the study, India needs to increase the share of electricity in its energy mix from 18% today to 45% in 2050. It also needs to increase the share of renewable sources of energy for its electricity generation to 90% by 2050

According to the study, India’s current carbon emissions are about 2.5 GT, which is estimated to touch 6 GT by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. Even after following this path, 1.3 GT of carbon emissions would still be left. So India will have to undertake forestation of 30-40 million hectares, an area which is equal to the size of Rajasthan.

For achieving the net-zero target, India’s cumulative undiscounted additional investment costs would be around $81 trillion or about 35% of incremental GDP by 2050 

While the pressure is building up on the developing economies in the G20, including India, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and Turkey to commit to the net-zero target, many of them want developed countries to provide the funds needed for the developing world for the transition to cleaner fuels. And most developed nations have not given the funds promised years ago.