Page 5 - India Economy

West Asia crisis: Supply woes could trigger demand shock, says RBI Bulletin

War, weak monsoon raise upside risks to inflation

Bernstein flags jobs, AI, and subsidy risks in open letter to PM Modi

The brokerage says India's growth story could under-deliver without faster reforms as AI threatens services jobs, subsidies rise and manufacturing struggles to absorb labour

India coal output declines in FY26; March sees first drop in over a decade

India's coal output growth turned negative for the first time since Covid, with March production contracting amid supply shortfalls, inventory drawdowns and weaker pricing

West Asia conflict prompted MPC status quo, flag external sector risks

RBI holds rates amid West Asia risks, as MPC flags inflation, supply shocks, and external pressures while maintaining a cautious growth outlook

The West Asia Challenge: Govt must revisit its macroeconomic assumptions

West Asia tensions threaten India's fiscal balance, growth outlook, and external stability, forcing a rethink of macroeconomic assumptions

Weekly economy wrap: Inflation uptick, monsoon fears weigh on outlook

Economy wrap April 13-19: Rising fuel-led inflation, job market stress and West Asia risks cloud near-term outlook even as government attempts to sustain growth momentum

'Iran war may be as disruptive for India as Covid; long-term impact likely'

Although the government is sticking to its forecasts of 6.8 per cent-7.2 per cent for the fiscal year through March 2027, several economists have already started to downgrade their projections

Diversify and grow: Indian businesses expand beyond home turf, face risks

While horizontal expansion fuels growth and domestic dominance, these capital-intensive ventures often lack immediate returns, risking resource dilution and a loss of global strategic focus

Antibiotic resistance fuels 87% of India's typhoid economic burden: Study

Antibiotic-resistant typhoid infections accounted for at least 87 per cent of India's disease-related economic burden in 2023, according to a study in The Lancet Regional Health Southeast Asia. The total economic burden due to typhoid fever was estimated at Rs 123 billion. Children under the age of 10 incurred the highest economic burden, contributing to over half of the costs, researchers, including those from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Christian Medical College in Vellore, found. They also estimated that households bore 91 per cent of expenses, and 70,000 families faced "catastrophic" health expenditure. Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana), Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal were estimated to account for 51 per cent of the national costs. Typhoid fever is an infectious disease commonly transmitted through contaminated food or water. Symptoms can include high fever, fatigue, headache and stomach pain. The authors said the findings pr

Goldman Sachs cuts India's 2026 growth forecast to 5.9%, sees rate hike

The fresh cut in growth estimate by Goldman's analysts follows a change in their assumptions on oil prices and the period of disruption to supplies

Disruptions from West Asia war threaten to derail India's growth momentum

Generations of Indian workers and businesses have turned the Arab side of the Gulf into a vital appendage of their own country

West Asia war: Are the effects priced in amid rising economic risks?

As the Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens, India faces rising inflation, supply shocks, and fiscal strain, with markets yet to fully price in the risks

New GDP series: A beginner's guide to GDP estimates | GDP base year | GDP growth | Indian Economy

India is set to release a new GDP series with 2022–23 as the base year. But what exactly is GDP, how is it calculated, and why do revisions matter?

An economic policy response to the West Asia crisis: Managing supply shock

Policymakers will need to rely on both internal and external shock absorbers to guide the economy to its new equilibrium

If short-lived, conflict unlikely to dent India's macro outlook: Economists

Economists say a brief West Asia conflict may have limited impact on India's macro outlook, though risks could emerge if crude oil prices stay elevated for a prolonged period

Iran war: Fiscal pressures on govt may mount next FY, say experts

A prolonged West Asia conflict could strain India's fiscal position through higher fertiliser subsidies, rising import costs and weaker revenue growth

West Asia war digest, March 11: Stories tracking the economic fallout

HL: West Asia war digest, March 11: Stories tracking the economic fallout Strap: From fuel security and LPG shortages to auto, food, markets and LIC losses, here's Business Standard's March 11 covera

Best of BS Opinion: Broader ecosystem response needed to check cyber fraud

Today's Opinion highlights RBI's draft digital fraud framework, Nepal's political churn under Balen Shah, questions around India's growth optimism, LBS reforms, and a book on plastic's global spread.

ADB flags India's oil vulnerability amid rising West Asia tensions

ADB says India's crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels-enough for 40-45 days-leave the country exposed to potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz

West Asia conflict poses short-term risks to Indian economy: RBI MPC member

Conflict in the Middle East poses some immediate-term challenges for the Indian economy but is unlikely to dent long-term economic growth momentum, an external member of the RBI's rate-setting panel has said. Going forward, there is a need for fiscal and monetary policies to work in a coordinated manner to push GDP growth to a higher trajectory, Nagesh Kumar has said. In the present scenario, a hike in oil prices, exports disruptions and impact on remittances have been identified as the immediate challenges on the growth front, he said. "The breakout of the Middle East conflict poses some immediate-term challenges for the Indian economy by raising oil prices, disrupting exports destined to the region and the potential loss of remittances, besides threatening security of the Indian diaspora in the region," Kumar told PTI in an e-mailed interview. In the immediate short run, he noted, the conflict is escalating with US-Israel strikes and oil prices are likely to harden. "Hopefully,