Chances of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth double - should we be worried?

The chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in the coming years have just doubled, sparking fresh concerns and heightened attention from scientists and space enthusiasts alike. As of recent updates, the asteroid’s probability of collision has surged to 1 in 43, placing it at the top of Nasa’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) risk list. But does this mean we should start worrying about an impending disaster? Experts say there’s no immediate cause for alarm — yet the situation remains fluid, and evolving data could alter the risk assessment as more information comes to light. Here's what you need to know.

 

 

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Why the odds have doubled?

 

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, and like most newly discovered near-Earth objects (NEOs), its exact trajectory and potential for impact were initially uncertain. Astronomers, using advanced tracking technologies and sophisticated analysis, had estimated the chances of the asteroid colliding with Earth to be relatively low. At the time, the impact probability stood at 1 in 83. However, with more data accumulated from observatories like the Atlas Telescope in Chile, this probability has now increased, reaching 1 in 43 — essentially doubling the odds.

 

Interesting situation - if the probability remains this high then we will have to make a decision on preparing a deflection mission - which would be a good investment even if (as is most likely) we don’t need to use it this time. It’s as if the Universe has decided to do an… https://t.co/Leic2rdLaU

— Brian Cox (@ProfBrianCox) February 8, 2025

 

Despite this jump, renowned asteroid hunter David Rankin, who was instrumental in pre-covering the asteroid using data from the Catalina Sky Survey, underscored that this increase does not signify an imminent threat. In fact, he noted that such changes are a natural part of the process when new celestial bodies are discovered, as initial predictions often come with higher uncertainty.

 

“This is expected,” Rankin stated. “As we collect more data, the uncertainty zones tighten, and the impact risk will likely decrease as we track it more accurately.”

 

Asteroid 2024 YR4: What does this increase in risk mean?

 

While the rise in the chances of impact sounds alarming, the odds are still in our favour. The current assessment gives a 2.3 per cent chance of collision, leaving a 97.7 per cent chance that the asteroid will miss Earth. This means that while the risk has doubled, it remains relatively low. The primary concern arises from the uncertainty surrounding the asteroid’s precise orbit, which, like most newly discovered objects, is still being refined.

 

Rankin further explained that early predictions often reflect a broad "line of variation" due to the difficulty in pinpointing the exact position of the asteroid along its orbit. The “line of variation” refers to the uncertainty zone in the asteroid’s trajectory, where the center of this zone currently passes through Earth. This is what leads to the fluctuating impact probabilities as new data comes in.

 

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Size and characteristics

 

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 100 metres in diameter — about the size of a small skyscraper. While it is large enough to cause significant damage if it were to hit Earth, its impact would likely not be catastrophic on a global scale, based on its current size estimates. The asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024, by the Atlas Telescope, and its size and composition have been subjects of continued analysis by global space agencies.

 

The initial data suggests that, if the asteroid were to collide with Earth, it would most likely cause localised damage — similar to the Tunguska event of 1908, where a small asteroid exploded in the atmosphere over Siberia. However, such impacts are rare, and this remains an unlikely scenario given current projections.

 

Tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4: The role of technology

 

The key to understanding the increasing odds of impact is the precision of asteroid tracking technologies. As astronomers gather more data through AI-powered telescopes and spectral analysis, the ability to monitor and predict asteroid trajectories has dramatically improved. These innovations have made it possible to calculate the asteroid's size, speed, and composition with greater accuracy, enabling quicker adjustments to risk assessments.  

 

This technological advancement is crucial in refining early-warning systems and developing planetary defense strategies. By using AI-driven models, scientists can process vast amounts of data and predict potential threats in real time, offering vital time for mitigation efforts if necessary.

 

For asteroid 2024 YR4, improvements in observational data will likely reduce the uncertainty about its path, leading to a more precise prediction of its future movements. Experts expect that, with continued monitoring, the likelihood of impact will decrease as more information becomes available. For now, the asteroid’s risk is classified as moderate, but the situation is under close scrutiny by space agencies worldwide.

 

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Should we be concerned?

 

While the doubling of impact odds may seem concerning, experts urge the public not to panic. The increased probability is a natural part of the asteroid tracking process, and the real threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4 is still very low. As more data is gathered, scientists are refining their models, and the uncertainty about the asteroid’s orbit will likely decrease.

 

NASA, ESA, and other space agencies are actively monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4 and refining their predictions using the latest observational technologies. Furthermore, ongoing advancements in planetary defense methods — such as asteroid deflection techniques — ensure that, should a serious threat emerge in the future, we will have the tools and knowledge to mitigate the risk.

 

“It’s crucial that the public understands that there is no immediate cause for alarm,” said Rankin. “We are constantly tracking the asteroid, and the probability of impact will likely decrease in the coming months as more observations are made.”