After Iran and Venezuela, why is Cuba Trump's next foreign policy focus

The US is increasing economic pressure on Cuba amid an energy crisis and changing regional politics, raising questions about Washington's strategy after Venezuela and Iran

The United States’ (US) recent foreign policy moves in Latin America and West Asia have put Cuba back in focus. After the ouster of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, significant threats against Denmark for a hostile takeover, and military escalation against Iran, President Donald Trump has signalled that Cuba could be the next major target of Washington’s pressure campaign.

 

In recent remarks, Trump suggested that Cuba’s Communist government could soon fall and indicated that his administration is working to dismantle the political system built after the 1959 revolution.

 

The shift is part of a broader strategy of Washington, one which mixes sanctions, economic pressure, and support for internal political change in countries viewed as hostile to the US.

 

 

Why has Cuba suddenly become a focus for Trump?

 

Cuba has been a strategic and ideological adversary of the US for decades now, starting with the Cold War era. Washington has maintained an economic embargo against the island nation since the early 1960s, originally imposed after Fidel Castro’s revolution, which aligned Cuba with the Soviet Union.

 

The Trump administration has not only revived but also intensified that pressure in recent months. In January this year, Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency related to Cuba, arguing that the government’s actions threaten US national security and support hostile actors abroad. The order authorised new tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba, a measure aimed at cutting off the island’s energy lifelines and tightening economic isolation.

 

Officials have also cited Cuba’s ties with governments and groups that Washington considers adversarial, including Russia, China and Iran.

 

How the Venezuela factor is reshaping US policy in Cuba

 

International relations analysts have pointed out that events in Venezuela have directly influenced Washington’s approach toward Cuba.

 

In January, a US military operation led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, after years of sanctions and political confrontation. The US has since reopened diplomatic relations with the country’s transitional leadership.

 

For Cuba, the change in Caracas is more significant. For decades, Venezuela supplied the island with subsidised oil that helped sustain its economy, and the recent US actions have disrupted those shipments. Washington has also threatened tariffs against countries that continue selling oil to Cuba, increasing pressure on Havana’s already fragile economy.

 

The result has been palpable for the small island nation, which is facing severe fuel shortages. Recent blackouts across Cuba have been linked to the shrinking supply of imported oil and the country’s ageing power infrastructure.

 

Analysts say the loss of Venezuelan support has left Cuba more economically vulnerable than at any point in recent decades.

 

Is Washington seeking regime change in Cuba?

 

Some US officials have openly discussed the possibility of political change in Cuba. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is exploring contacts with Cuban officials who might negotiate a transition away from Communist rule.

 

The strategy reflects a broader approach that has emerged in recent months as the administration believes that economic pressure and internal political fractures could trigger change without a prolonged US military occupation.

 

“Cuba’s rulers are incompetent Marxists who have destroyed their country, and they have had a major setback with the Maduro regime that they are responsible for propping up,” a US official was quoted as saying by the WSJ.

 

Trump himself has hinted at a “friendly takeover” or political transition in Cuba, suggesting that Cuban-Americans could one day return to a transformed island. 

 

Reasons behind renewed focus of the US on Cuba now

 

Several factors appear to have come together for the US President to target Cuba now. First, Cuba’s economy is facing one of its deepest crises in decades, marked by shortages of fuel, food, and foreign currency. Second, the removal of Maduro has deprived Havana of a crucial economic partner. And third, Washington appears to view the current moment as a rare opportunity, with US officials believing the Cuban government is unusually vulnerable after losing external support amid mounting economic pressure. It is noteworthy that none of Cuba's traditional allies, including Mexico, Russia, China, or Vietnam, has come to help the island nation in the absence of Venezuela.

 

For now, the administration’s strategy relies largely on economic leverage and diplomatic pressure rather than direct military intervention. But the increasingly sharp rhetoric from Washington has raised questions about whether Cuba could become the next major point of focus in US foreign policy after Venezuela and Iran.