Israel exit polls show tight contest between Netanyahu and Eisenkot

By Marissa Newman, Dan Williams, Shira Rubin and Alisa Odenheimer

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot are neck and neck in the country’s first election since the 2023 Hamas attacks, setting up a tense period of negotiations over who will form the next government.

 

Netanyahu’s religious right-wing alliance and Eisenkot’s more centrist bloc are both on track to secure 51 of Israel’s 120 parliamentary seats, according to two exit polls published after voting closed late Tuesday. A third exit poll showed Netanyahu slightly ahead, after earlier indicating that Eisenkot was leading.

 

That signals each contender will fall short of the majority needed to become the next prime minister, raising the prospect that neither will be able to form a governing coalition and that Israel could hold another election within months. 

 

 

Netanyahu and Eisenkot each appeared confident, telling their supporters they would be able to form ruling coalitions.

 

Netanyahu, 77, appeared on stage around 3:15 a.m. local time, saying his rightist bloc has “a clear, decisive majority.” He appeared jubilant and finished his speech in Jerusalem by calling officials from his Likud party on to the stage to sing the national anthem.

 

He talked up his relationship with US President Donald Trump and said the two of them would “remove this threat” of Iran, again suggesting another round of bombing against the Islamic Republic could be close.

 

Eisenkot, a 66-year-old former general, spoke beforehand and described Netanyahu’s current far-right government as “the coalition of failure” that had “lost the people’s trust.”

 

“We have made history,” he said. “The public has voted for change,” adding that it would be a mistake to go to a second round of voting.

 

Votes are still being counted and the final picture could yet change. For now, Netanyahu’s Likud looks set to be the biggest single party — even though it likely won far fewer seats than in the last election in 2022 — with Eisenkot’s Yashar in second place. 

 

Traders on prediction markets had consistently given Eisenkot a higher chance of becoming the next leader since mid-July. But that changed in the early hours of Wednesday, with Polymarket suggesting Netanyahu’s odds had climbed to 55% and Eisenkot’s had dropped to 27%.

 

Israel’s two Arab parties have emerged as potential kingmakers. They are forecast to win 18 seats, the exit polls showed, ahead of expectations. Both have indicated they would back Eisenkot, having rallied supporters to help oust Netanyahu and prevent a new term they believe would pose an existential threat. 

 

Voter turnout was close to record highs throughout the day, reaching about 78% shortly before 10 p.m., when voting ended, according to the central elections committee.

 

Should Eisenkot succeed in becoming prime minister, it would mark a stunning defeat for Netanyahu, who has dominated Israel’s politics for much of the past three decades and led the country through three years of near constant war since Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023.

 

Many Israelis blame him for failing to prevent, and subsequently take responsibility for, the Hamas assault on Israel that was the deadliest day in the Jewish state’s history. Netanyahu has since waged military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and against Iran, which he insists have made the country safer. 

 

“The public has spoken — it has fired the Netanyahu government,” Yair Golan, leader of the leftist Democrats Party and part of Eisenkot’s bloc, said in a statement. “We represent an enormous constituency that has spent four years fighting in the streets. We are ready to work with our partners, bridge differences and take responsibility.”

 

The makeup of any new government will probably take days or weeks to finalize, with Netanyahu remaining prime minister in the meantime. That would enable him to join Trump in renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterms next week, as both have repeatedly threatened.

 

Trump had endorsed Netanyahu, saying the incumbent had what it takes to “finish the job” in the eight-month war with the Islamic Republic.

 

Eisenkot pitched himself as a more modest alternative to Netanyahu, while still emphasizing a commitment to resolving Israel’s myriad security challenges. On Iran, he has said the country’s nuclear program must be curbed, militarily if necessary, but that regime change in Tehran is “not an achievable goal.” 

 

No party in Israel’s history has won an outright election majority, requiring often long periods of coalition negotiations. President Isaac Herzog will nominate the presumptive prime minister based on the vote count and party recommendations. 

 

Polling stations in parts of Tel Aviv were packed on Tuesday, with lines snaking through schools — where many of the booths have been set up — and spilling into streets. Some of the political parties set up stands blaring out music, and handed out balloons, sweets and stickers to voters and their children.

 

Beyond national security, voters cast ballots on a set of domestic issues — including whether to draft ultra-Orthodox young men into the army. The power of the Supreme Court and judicial system, which Netanyahu has sought to undermine, transparency and corruption are also on the agenda.

 

For Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where violence by Jewish settlers on Arabs has soared since the Hamas incursion, the election is unlikely to lead to any immediate changes. Like Netanyahu, Eisenkot has ruled out a two-state solution, saying it would threaten Israel’s security, though he’s condemned the government for supporting Israelis who have attacked Palestinians.

 

The economy has mostly taken a back seat. Israel has proved resilient in the face of multiple wars, with the shekel and the stock market outperforming most rich-world peers this year. Still, whoever leads the next government will have to deal with issues ranging from a soaring defense budget to rising sovereign debt levels and one of the world’s highest costs of living.