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| StatsGuru-02-November-09 |
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| Thanks to a sharp turnaround IN THE fortunes of PSU oil marketing companies due to lower oil subsidies, savings in overall costs of production and interest earnings on the cash piles it is sitting on, India Inc’s profits rose over 63 per cent in the September quarter. This is while topline sales fell 6.3 per cent. Once you net out sectors like oil and refining or steel where prices have fallen hugely over the year, the sales growth is a more respectable 8.3% — net profit margins also rise, from 8.9% to 11%. Sales and profits, however, tend to be concentrated and the top 10 firms account for over 40 per cent of sales/profits of our sample of 1,068 firms — remove these top 10 firms, and net profit margins for the sample fall around 30 per cent. Tax provisions are up 23 per cent due to the Minimum Alternate Tax. Most of the top companies — in terms of sales/profits — have seen a relatively poor quarter.
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| StatsGuru- 05-October-09 |
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| HOW MUCH THE RECOVERY HAS GAINED GROUND is best seen from the fact that the IMF has, once again, raised its forecast for global growth for 2009 as well as 2010. But, as was underlined at the G-20 meet, the recovery is fragile, heavily dependent upon government spending and support — global deficits are up 6 percentage points and governments in advanced economies have provided guarantees of over 30 per cent of their GDP to prevent their banks from collapsing.
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| StatsGuru- 07-September-09 |
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| THE OECD HAS HIKED ITS THIRD QUARTER FORECASTS by 1.8 percentage points (ppt) since June, signalling a clear revival in advanced economies. But the recovery is heavily dependent upon government spending — in the US, this accounted for 45% of the positive growth impulse in Q2 while exports contributed 55%. The banking crisis hasn’t abated and the number of problem banks in the US has risen to a 15-year high.
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| StatsGuru-03-August-09 |
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| the imf has raised its forecast a tad but uncertainties remain. US data is encouraging and Q2 growth fell just 1% as compared to 6.4% in Q1 with both housing and investment contracting less. Rising public debt ensures spreads remain well above pre-crisis levels and lending to companies is far from taking off. The Euro Area will remain troubled while the US bounces back next year.
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| StatsGuru 06-July-09 |
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| The DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE TAX STRUCTURE from one dominated by indirect taxes when he was full-fledged finance minister in the 1980s is the first thing that will strike Pranab Mukherjee as he rises to present his budget today. Nearly two decades of reforms have seen more stable tax regimes with less room for discretion. With corporate India contributing more than four per cent of GDP as taxes and the bulk of investment, keeping it in good health is critical.
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| StatsGuru |
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| The ECONOMIC recovery is not in doubt, its strength is. A few weeks ago, the stress tests by the US Fed suggested a total of $75 bn was required by US banks to recapitalise, and much of this has already been raised, and quite easily at that. Bank interest rate margins are up. But, as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) report shows, the number of ‘problem banks’ in the US has risen sharply. In other words, the recovery is going to have several ups and downs.
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| StatsGuru 04- April- 09 |
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| Take almost any index, and the result is unambiguous. Last year's sharp slide - in growth, credit, housing and more - has slowed, even reversed, though very slightly. How long a full-blown recovery will take is anyone’s guess. The global economy shrank 5 per cent in the last quarter (on an annualised basis) and that of advanced countries fell 7 per cent.
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| StatsGuru 02- March-09 |
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| The Indian Economy has slowed to a six year low in Oct-Dec (Q3), and the the last time the US economy shrunk as much as it did in this quarter was way back in 1982. Not unexpectedly, India’s sharp dip has taken place with the investment-to-GDP numbers falling from 35.3% of GDP in Q2 2008-09 to 31% in Q3 — it was the sharp hike in this, buoyed largely by corporate India’s investment binge, that had led to the sharp surge in GDP over the past few years.
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| StatsGuru 02-February-09 |
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| TILL A FEW WEEKS AGO, IT LOOKED AS IF THINGS WERE STABILISING IN GLOBAL MARKETS. Ted spreads were falling, Aaa bond rates declined a bit, banks had begun to lend and stock markets were steadying. But with Citibank, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, and a host of others declaring disastrous results, it is clear the financial mess is far from being sorted out.
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| StatsGuru 05-January-09 |
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| Opinion is divided on Whether the two bailout packages will get India back on track. Economic think-tank ICRIER maintains growth in the first half of 2009-10 is unlikely to move beyond 4 per cent, making even 6 per cent for the full year a near impossibility.
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| StatsGuru 01-December-08 |
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| At current valuations, the sensex looks remarkably well-priced. The Sensex has a Price-Earnings ratio of 11.1 and a Price-to-Book-Value of 2.3 — figures which are much healthier than those seen for several years when the Sensex was at much lower levels. Of course, all such comparisons are based on trailing earnings — look at forward earnings, and the picture could be quite different as future earnings of most companies are expected to take a dive. Reliance Industries’ trailing PE is very attractive but could look quite different given future earnings could take a toss with refinery margins collapsing. Not surprisingly, the Sensex has risen when interest rates are low and, when the Sensex has done well, companies have managed to raise a lot more funds to finance their expansion plans. Though this year’s bear phase has been less than a fourth as long as the bull one, the Sensex has fallen a lot more sharply, suggesting the worst may not be over.
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| StatsGuru 09-October-08 |
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| the ink has barely dried on the $700-billion US bailout package and experts are already estimating the damage to the global economy could be double that.
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| StatsGuru 01-September-08 |
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| The US crisis has now spread to Japan and Europe. Japan’s economy is shrinking. The mood in Germany is less buoyant. The US continues to live out the shallow-but-long recession scenario.
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| StatsGuru 07-July-08 |
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A few months ago the consensus view was the economy would grow at 8 per cent or so.
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| StatsGuru 05-May-08 |
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The RBI strategy of squeezing liquidity has worked and non-food bank credit growth was down to 22% in 2007-08 as compared to over 30% a year prior.
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