India's chronic disease surge hits women hardest, defying global trend

A new Lancet report highlights that India is among the few nations of the world where mortality due to non-communicable diseases increased over the past decade, bucking global improvements

A new global analysis published in The Lancet reveals that India is one of the few countries where the risk of dying from chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rising. While most countries are witnessing a decline in deaths from conditions such as heart disease, diabetes and cancer, India is experiencing the opposite, with women more severely affected than men.

 

Global picture of NCD mortality

The study titled ‘Benchmarking progress in non-communicable diseases: A global analysis of cause-specific mortality from 2001 to 2019’, utilised data from the World Health Organization’s Global Health Estimates.

 

Worldwide, the probability of dying from a non-communicable disease (NCD) before age 80 is 38 per cent for women and 51 per cent for men. NCD mortality declined in all high-income western countries, with Denmark experiencing the largest decline for both sexes and the USA experiencing the smallest decline.

 

From 2010 to 2019, the risk of dying from an NCD:

 

• Declined in 152 out of 185 countries (82 per cent) for women.
• Declined in 147 out of 185 countries (79 per cent) for men.
• Increased in the remaining 33 countries (18 per cent) for women.
• Increased in the remaining 38 countries (21 per cent) for men.

 

Biggest improvements were seen for:

• Women in Central Asia, Middle East and North Africa with average drop of 6.6 per cent
• Men in Central and Eastern Europe with an average drop of 6.7 per cent

 

India, however, is among the few where the risk increased, highlighting gaps in prevention, diagnosis and treatment of chronic illnesses. 

Indian picture of NCD mortality

 

The study, which analysed mortality data from 185 countries between 2001 and 2019, reveals that the probability of dying from an NCD between birth and age 80 years increased in India from 2010 to 2019. This stands in contrast to the steady decline seen in high-income Western countries and emerging economies in East Asia.

 

The rise was more substantial for women at 2.1 per cent, while for men the probability increased only slightly, by around 0.1 per cent. Among women, the increase in NCD deaths was driven largely by mortality above age 40, whereas for men, the rise became more evident only after age 55.

 

Main reasons for the increase

 

The main drivers of this increase were ischaemic heart disease (coronary heart disease) and diabetes, along with chronic kidney disease linked to diabetes. Together, they contributed heavily to the worsening mortality trends for both sexes.

 

Trends in NCD deaths between 2010 and 2019: Women fare worse, men show mixed results

 

Women:

1. Worsening across most major causes of NCD deaths.
2. Exceptions: Cirrhosis of the liver, COPD, and residual “other NCDs” showed no deterioration.

 

Men:

1. Mixed trend overall.
2. Improvement in 8 of 20 NCD categories.
3. Gains seen in COPD, heart disease, and cirrhosis.

 

This means that women’s mortality patterns worsened compared with the previous decade, while for men, although deaths still increased, the rate of worsening slowed down. Experts suggest factors such as delayed diagnosis, limited access to healthcare, and socio-cultural barriers may be contributing to women’s greater vulnerability.

 

Why the trend is a wake-up call 

The findings make it clear that India is falling behind on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of reducing premature deaths from non-communicable diseases by one-third by 2030.

 

Although there were earlier improvements in male mortality from conditions such as COPD and stroke, these gains have been overshadowed by rising deaths from heart disease and diabetes. For women, the situation is even more concerning, with mortality worsening across almost all major causes of NCDs.

 

The trend highlights the urgent need for action on preventable risks, including unhealthy diets, sedentary lifestyles, tobacco use, air pollution, along with expanded access to early detection, treatment and gender-sensitive healthcare.

 

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