FMCG companies likely to see slow but steady growth in 2026: Numerator

Numerator says categories that saw high growth are expected to normalise

Worldpanel by Numerator, earlier known as Kantar Worldpanel, has said it expects the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector in India this calendar year to continue to grow at a slow but steady pace, with the annual rate of increase reaching 5 per cent. 

 

“Categories where we have seen high growth are expected to normalise, given that they are becoming larger now, which is one of the reasons growth will be slow at the FMCG level, but that is not bad per se,” said  K Ramakrishnan, managing director (South Asia). 

 

This is higher than the growth rate of 4.1 per cent the sector saw last year.

 

The October-December quarter 2025 had rung up 4.5 per cent, a bit lower than the rate seen in the quarter ended September, the report said. 

 

“We think there are a few reasons for the slowness in the final quarter. First, the GST 2.0 (goods and services tax 2.0) rollout hasn’t yet started impacting the FMCG market. We have to remember that the GST reforms when it comes to the FMCG market were always expected to impact in the long term rather than in the near term,” Ramakrishnan said in the report. 

 

Big-ticket items like heavy durables and automobiles became attractive with GST reduction, and expenses were diverted here, he said. Another factor adding to slower sales was that the festival season arrived early (Dussehra was on October 2), which meant festival purchases happened in September. That cut into sales in the quarter ended December, which caused a nominal reduction in the growth rate in Q4 2025.  

 

In October-December, categories in home hygiene, convenience, and cooking oils slowed against the period of the previous year. 

 

“Floor cleaners and utensil cleaners have seen some slowdown versus last year’s quarter. Both these categories (saw) really strong growth in 2024 and are continuing to grow, but at a smaller pace. Convenience slowdown is again for the same reason -- really strong growth in the 2024 quarter for Ready to Cook Mixes but a strong but slower growth in the 2025 quarter,” the report said. 

 

Snacks continue to see demand, increasing at almost 6 per cent in the quarter ended December, while soft drinks saw strong growth towards the end of the year, clocking 19 per cent.