GIFT Nifty signals quiet start while investors await RBI decision

GIFT Nifty:

GIFT Nifty December 2025 futures was up 5 points, indicating a muted opening for the Nifty 50 today.

Investors await the Reserve Bank of Indias Monetary Policy Committee decision, which will be released this morning.

Market participants are also looking ahead to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure data scheduled for release on Friday, which could influence Fed policy.

Institutional Flows:

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 1,944.19 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 3,661.05 crore in the Indian equity market on 4 December 2025, provisional data showed.

The FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 10,764.90 crore so far in December. This follows their cash sales of Rs 17,500.31 crore in November and Rs 2,346.89 crore in October.

Global Markets:

Asian indices were mixed on Friday, taking cues from Wall Streets largely flat finish as traders weighed growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

US equities ended largely unchanged overnight, supported by firm bets that the Fed will ease policy next week while investors await a key inflation reading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.11% and the NASDAQ Composite added 0.22%.

The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting has risen, with futures now pricing in about an 87% chance.

Fresh labour data added to the uncertainty. Weekly jobless claims fell sharply by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 191,000, the lowest since September 2022, though holiday-related distortions may have amplified the decline. Earlier in the week, ADP reported a 32,000 drop in private-sector payrolls, the steepest fall in more than two and a half years. Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted that announced job cuts dropped sharply in November, although hiring plans remained subdued.

These indicators arrive against the backdrop of an unprecedented 43-day government shutdown that postponed the Bureau of Labor Statistics official jobs report, now expected only after the Fed's policy decision.

In corporate news, Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares fell 9% in after-hours trade after the company missed fourth-quarter revenue expectations, reporting $9.68 billion against the consensus estimate of $9.94 billion.

Domestic Market:

Key equity indices posted modest gains Thursday, breaking a four-day losing streak. Sentiment, however, remained fragile as the weak rupee, steady FII outflows and uncertainty ahead of the RBIs policy decision kept investors cautious. Volatility increased due to the weekly derivatives expiry, while firm crude prices added pressure by stoking concerns over higher import costs and inflation. Traders also monitored Russian President Vladimir Putin's India visit on 4 and 5 December. The Nifty held above 26,000, supported by strength in IT and FMCG stocks.

The S&P BSE Sensex, advanced 158.51 points or 0.19% to 85,265.32. The Nifty 50 index added 47.75 points or 0.18% to 26,033.75. In the past four trading sessions, the Nifty and Sensex declined 0.88% and 0.72%, respectively.

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