Swiggy Q4 results preview: Will losses widen? Here's what brokerages expect

Swiggy Q4 results preview: Analysts project a 36% YoY revenue rise for the food delivery platform, but warn that losses may deepen amid rising expenses

Swiggy Q4 results preview: Food delivery platform Swiggy is scheduled to release its fourth quarter ended March 31, 2025, results on Friday, May 9. 

Swiggy Q4 results 2025: Profit estimates

Brokerages tracked by Business Standard expect Swiggy's net loss to widen in the fourth quarter (Q4FY25), on average, to ₹967.7 crore as compared to a loss of ₹548.1 crore a year ago. In Q3FY25, the net loss stood at ₹800.53 crore.

Swiggy Q4 results 2025: Revenue expectations

The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to increase 35.76 per cent in the fourth quarter, on average, to ₹4,285.76 crore as compared to ₹3,156.75 crore a year ago. On a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis, revenue is expected to rise around 5 per cent, up from ₹4,083.4 crore in Q3FY25.

Swiggy Q4FY25: Key monitorables  

Swiggy Instamart’s gross order value (GOV) and average order value (AOV) growth, dark store additions, and margins will be closely monitored by analysts and investors. Instamart is Swiggy's grocery delivery application. 

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How will Swiggy perform in Q4? Brokerages decode

Motilal Oswal: GOV for food delivery/quick commerce business is expected to achieve 17 per cent/95 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth, with take rates of 22 per cent and 15 per cent in Q4FY25, according to analysts at Motilal Oswal. Further, Instamart is anticipated to grow 18 per cent Q-o-Q with an adjusted Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of -16.6 per cent for Q4, while out-of-home consumption is anticipated to break even with 35 per cent Q-o-Q revenue growth.  

 

Swiggy's consolidated revenue is expected to come in at ₹4,226.8 crore as compared to ₹3,156.75 crore a year ago. Its overall adjusted Ebitda loss is pegged at ₹983.2 as compared to an Ebitda loss of ₹363.65 a year ago. 

 

Besides, food delivery's adjusted Ebitda as a percentage of GOV is expected to inch up 20 basis points (bps) Q-o-Q to 2.7 per cent. Instamart is projected to report a -5.2 per cent contribution margin and -16.6 per cent adjusted Ebitda margin in Q4.  

 

ICICI Securities: The brokerage estimates Swiggy’s food delivery GOV to decline 1.5 per cent Q-o-Q, while on a Y-o-Y basis, it is poised to grow 17.3 per cent with an adjusted Ebitda margin (percentage of GOV) of 2.6 per cent. 

 

Instamart’s GOV is likely to grow by 25.1 per cent/110.4 per cent Q-o-Q/Y-o-Y, while its adjusted Ebitda margin (percentage of GOV) is expected to decline by 301 (bps) Q-o-Q. 

 

The company's consolidated adjusted Ebitda loss for the quarter is estimated at ₹774.6 crore as compared to an Ebitda loss of ₹363.65 crore a year ago. 

 

Additionally, Q4FY25E supply chain and distribution revenue is estimated to grow by 5 per cent/40.5 per cent Q-o-Q/Y-o-Y. Adjusted Ebitda margin is expected at -17.4 per cent, as a proportion of adjusted revenue against -11.5 per cent/-11.1 per cent in Q3FY25/Q4FY24. 

 

Consolidated adjusted revenue for the fourth quarter is expected at ₹4,454.6 crore as compared to ₹3,156.75 crore a year ago. In Q3FY25, the adjusted revenue stood at ₹4,083.4 crore. 

 

JM Financial Institutional Securities: According to the domestic brokerage, in the food delivery segment, Swiggy's sequential GOV may decline 2 per cent Q-o-Q, however, it may rise 17 per cent Y-o-Y due to seasonality (fewer days in Feb). 

 

Further, the take rates are likely to expand to 22.2 per cent in Q4FY25 vas against 22 per cent in Q3FY25. JM Financial estimates contribution margin (as percentage of GOV) to expand to 8 per cent from 7.4 per cent in Q3, while adjusted Ebitda margin (as percentage of GOV) are likely to expand 57 bps sequentially to 3 per cent as compared to 87 bps Q-o-Q in Q3. 

 

Meanwhile, Instamart's GOV is expected to grow 24.7 per cent sequentially and 109.7 per cent on a Y-o-Y basis. Take-rates are predicted to expand sequentially by 37 bps to 15.8 per cent, mainly due to an increase in ad income. Contribution margin could contract to -5.8 per cent (as a percentage of GOV) against -4.6 per cent in Q3, due to aggressive dark store expansion and the impact of the highly competitive landscape. 

 

Analysts at JM Financial anticipate the adjusted Ebitda margin (as a percentage of GOV) to fall 90 bps sequentially to -15.7 per cent. At a consolidated level, they expect reported Ebitda/profit after tax (PAT) to be at a loss of  ₹855 crore/₹925 crore respectively as compared to a loss of ₹726crore/ ₹803 crore in Q3.