Fiscal Deficit

Real GDP growth surprised on the upside in 2025, but weaker nominal growth, trade uncertainty, and soft demand signal a bumpier road ahead

10 states with the highest debt to GSDP ratio have debt levels above 30% of GSDP

CareEdge Ratings expects 7% growth in FY27, citing a possible US-India trade deal, low inflation and strong capex, while warning US tariffs could weigh on goods exports

Weak tax collections in October pushed Bihar's fiscal deficit to three times the FY26 budget estimate in seven months, with pre-poll spending adding pressure

Despite strong real growth, slowing nominal GDP and a sharply weaker deflator raise fiscal concerns, challenging Budget assumptions for FY26

Indian Rupee touched a new record low of 89.97 against the US dollar on December 1, 2025, amid delays in the India-US trade agreement, and limited RBI intervention

In the preceding quarter, the current account had recorded a deficit of $2.4 billion ot 0.2 per cent of GDP

Experts said meeting the gross tax revenue budget target of ₹42.7 trillion would be difficult as it would require a Y-o-Y expansion of 22 per cent in the November-March FY26 period.

Capital expenditure, or spending on building physical infrastructure, at ₹6.18 trillion against ₹4.7 trillion a year ago

Twenty-five years after its creation, Jharkhand continues to struggle with slow economic growth, high multidimensional poverty and persistent tribal welfare gaps despite fiscal improvements

As things stand, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is expected to lead the government again and, having been mostly at the helm since 2005, is well aware of where the state stands

The NDA's big mandate and its 'Viksit Bihar' agenda face fiscal strain as the state struggles with low capital outlay and a heavy revenue burden

Road Transport & Highways and Railways ministries lead capital expenditure in H1 FY26, with overall government capex reaching 52% of Budget estimates despite slower revenue growth

Cash transfers to women need a wider debate

In H1 of FY26, capex grew at a robust 40 per cent, exhausting more than half (51.8 per cent) of the Rs 11.2 trillion full year target against 37.3 per cent spending during the same period a year ago

The Centre's receipts stood at ₹17.3 lakh crore, or 49.5% of the FY26 target, while expenditure reached ₹23.03 lakh crore, or 45.5% of the estimate, led by higher interest and subsidy payments

India's fiscal deficit rose to 38.1 per cent of FY26 budget estimates in April-August, driven by higher capital expenditure and muted revenue receipts, CGA data showed

Net tax receipts stood at ₹8.1 trillion, down from ₹8.7 trillion in the same period last year, while non-tax revenue rose to ₹4.4 trillion from ₹3.3 trillion a year ago

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra calls on states to maintain fiscal discipline, improve expenditure quality and borrow responsibly while coordinating closely with the central bank

Separately, Bank of Baroda in a report said the impact of GST reforms will be minimal as it accounts for Rs 48,000 crore or only around 0.1-0.2 per cent of the GDP