Union Budget 2026-27 raises capital expenditure to ₹12.2 trn, reinforcing the govt's infrastructure-led growth strategy, even as spending in the current fiscal is expected to fall short of estimates
And bigger problems await from policy bottlenecks that the Budget has left untouched
Budget FY27 signals deeper banking reforms, possible PSB consolidation and higher borrowing, shifting the onus to RBI to manage yields and liquidity
The organising idea is clear: India is no longer trying to grow fast; it is trying to grow well
BofA Securities said the modest fiscal consolidation rests on "very realistic" revenue and expenditure assumptions, adding to the credibility of the Ministry of Finance
Aditi Nayar analyses the Budget's fiscal prudence, higher public capex via states, a 4.3 per cent deficit target, debt consolidation, and the impact of higher gross borrowings on bond yields
The economy is seen growing at 7.4 per cent in the current financial year, with inflation likely to be near 2 per cent
The tough position that the bond market finds itself reflects a much more fundamental issue, of rising government bond supply chasing limited domestic savings pool
PM Modi says Union Budget 2026 focuses on fiscal discipline, inflation control and high capital spending, while backing reforms, MSMEs and tourism to drive growth and achieving 'Viksit Bharat' goals
Union Budget 2026 stays focused on fiscal prudence, targets a 4.3% deficit, sustains ₹12.2 trillion capex, and backs rare earths, freight corridors, waterways and data centres, writes Madan Sabnavis
FM Nirmala Sitharaman pegged FY27 fiscal deficit at 4.3% of GDP, signalling continued fiscal consolidation, with net tax receipts seen at ₹28.7 trillion and higher tax devolution to states
The government is likely to aim for a fiscal deficit at 4.2 per cent of GDP for 2026-27, down from 4.4 per cent this fiscal year
India contained its FY26 fiscal deficit at 54.5% of Budget Estimates for April-December, aided by higher non-tax revenues and controlled spending despite a December capex dip
The upcoming Budget is going to put emphasis on easing the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is around 56 per cent, instead of targetting a specific fiscal deficit number as the country has almost reached the end of the glide path envisaged in the FRBM legislation. A fiscal deficit of 3-4 per cent is considered comfortable and a desirable target for a growing, developing economy like India, aiming to balance economic expansion with financial stability. Under the revised Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, the fiscal deficit target was below 4.5 per cent of GDP for 2025-26. Therefore, the union government announced a new glide path with the debt-to-GDP ratio as the fiscal anchor. So, the roadmap for the next six years was announced in the FRBM statement released on February 1, 2025. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her Budget speech in July 2024, had said, "The fiscal consolidation path announced by me in 2021 has served our economy very well, and we aim to reach
Amid data and fiscal uncertainties, the govt faces the difficult task of creating conditions to boost private capex
India's economy is expected to grow 6.8-7.2% in 2026-27; exports, domestic demand and reforms support growth, while global trade tensions pose some risks
India's economy is expected to grow 6.8-7.2% in 2026-27; exports, domestic demand and reforms support growth, while global trade tensions pose some risks
SBI Research expects Budget 2026 to focus on fiscal discipline, managing rising debt, steady borrowing and higher capital spending amid global uncertainty and volatile markets
Budget 2026-27 breaks new ground, but delayed GDP rebasing and continued fiscal secrecy risk undermining its numbers within weeks
As the Union Budget nears, the focus must shift to debt, deficits, and borrowing from household savings, and how these choices affect private investment, manufacturing growth, and jobs