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Why investors should be wary of the 'Unlock' trade: Let's look at the logic

Consumption growth could be disappointing and stock prices have run up fast

Investors react as they watch the stock prices on a digital screen, at BSE building in Mumbai, Friday, Sept. 20, 2019. Sensex surges 1,921.15 pts to end at 38,014.62; Nifty zooms past 11,200 after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a slew
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Given a fast run up in stock prices due to “unlock” trades, one should be cautious about increasing exposures. Valuations may be unsustainable.

Devangshu Datta
Starting with the third quarter of financial year 2020-21 (Q3FY21), we have seen “unlock” trades at various times. Whenever lockdowns have been eased, traders have taken long positions in consumer-facing businesses. Let’s look at the logic.

Since March 2020, sectors like retail, personal vehicles, hospitality, aviation, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), multiplexes, etc., have been under severe pressure. As a result, there’s been a low base effect. Every company in these spaces has suffered top line contraction. Many suffered losses, especially in the first half of FY21.

In Q3FY21, there were hopes of a festive season revival, with the first lockdowns lifted. That