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As the 224-member Karnataka assembly goes to polls on May 5, the stage is set for a fierce battle for a state whose political future looks wide open. The election outcome might set the political tone for the 2014 general polls. Political pundits term it as a first semi-final contest. The main contenders for power, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), and the fledgling Karnataka Janatha Paksha (KJP), launched in December by former BJP heavyweight and chief minister BS Yeddyurappa, have their own sets of worries. Six months later, the next phase of the state elections will be held in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. And, Karnataka verdict will come handy to gauge political temperament in the other states.
It appears that the Congress is by far better positioned than its political rivals to get a fair share of the seats though it is not likely to hit the magic figure of 113. The party stands to gain from the absence of any real political wave in Karnataka; besides, the rampant corruption that has plagued the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government led by it at the Centre is not likely to be a determinant of electoral outcome in the state.
The BJP government that has seen three chief ministers in five years, ceaseless corruption charges and cases against its elected members, including former chief minister Yeddyurappa, is desperate to paint itself clean by projecting its performance. The party, which made a grand entry into the south by forming a government in Karnataka in 2008, floundered subsequently and now faces tough competition from the Congress, the Janata Dal (S) and the KJP.
The JD(S) draws most of its support from the old Mysore area. But the party, which is seen more as a Deve Gowda family business with six of his kin in the fray, will be happy to better its 2008 tally of 28 seats. Flawed seat distribution by the Congress may help the JD(S).
In the 2008 elections, the BJP got a vote share of 33.86% and won 110 seats, improving upon its earlier tally of 28.33% votes and 79 seats. The Congress was marginally ahead of BJP in terms of vote share with 34.76% — a decline from 35.27% in 2004. JD(S) fell from 20.77 to 18.96%.
The main contenders
Siddaramaiah: The Congress stalwart is taking on a political novice in his citadel of Varuna. Political pundits are of the view that Siddaramaiah may have the last laugh this time around too, because the people of this constituency want him to become the next chief minister.
Siddaramaiah: The Congress stalwart is taking on a political novice in his citadel of Varuna. Political pundits are of the view that Siddaramaiah may have the last laugh this time around too, because the people of this constituency want him to become the next chief minister.
G Parameshwar: Pradesh Congress Committee president declared that he is an aspirant for the top post, but hastened to add that the party's high command will decide who should occupy the throne.
Suresh Kumar: The BJP rank and file is worried about the Shobha factor. The entry of Shobha Karandlaje of the KJP has turned things topsy-turvy in Rajajinagar constituency.
H D Kumaraswamy: The JD (S), out of power for the last five years, and therefore trying hard to reverse its fortunes in these elections. The former chief minister is seeking a re-election for the third time from Ramnagar. People in his constituency say that they see hope in him and the area has developed a great deal under him.
B S Yeddyurappa: Despite controversies, jail term and departing from the BJP, Yeddyurappa is still a force to reckon with. Experts say the former chief minister is on a revenge mode against his former party.
Sriramulu: Close aide of jailed mining baron G. Janardhan Reddy, he floated a new party to seek an independent political identity outside the BJP.
Election issues
The Congress wants to fight the election on local issues and exploit anti-incumbency sentiments at a time the ruling BJP is falling apart following the departure of Yeddyurappa. The illegal mining scam, illegal land denotification scam and the Below Poverty Line card scandal are proving to be fodder for the opposition in their campaigns. The moral policing issues in coastal Karnataka, mainly Mangalore, may also hurt the saffron outfit.
The BJP is banking heavily on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to add glitter to its campaign. The BJP now campaigns that the post-Yeddyurappa party is “clean”.The JD-S is targeting both the Congress and the BJP on non-performance. It also has made the Cauvery water imbroglio an election issue.
The BJP is banking heavily on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi to add glitter to its campaign. The BJP now campaigns that the post-Yeddyurappa party is “clean”.The JD-S is targeting both the Congress and the BJP on non-performance. It also has made the Cauvery water imbroglio an election issue.
Caste factor
In Karnataka, the Lingayats (21%) and Vokkaligas (18%) are the dominant castes, besides the backward classes (40%) who dictate terms in the rural areas. Muslims who form 12% of the electorate also play a major role in votebank politics.
With Yeddyurappa's exit, the Lingayats are undecided about who to vote for. While some will move their loyalty to the KJP, some will continue to back BJP's present chief minister, Jagadish Shettar, also a Lingayat. And if the optimistic upbeat Congressmen are to be believed, a part of the Lingayat vote is swinging back to the Congress.
The Vokkaligas commonly known as the Gowdas. They mostly back the JD(S), a party formed by former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda. Gowda and his son H.D. Kumaraswamy also were chief ministers of the state earlier. Although the JD(S) can count on the Gowda backing, the strength of the party is concentrated in southern and coastal Karnataka and the Mysore region. In places where it looks to be a sure winner, even Dalits and Muslims are rooting for the party.
Money power
The state has seen three major lobbies till date. First it was the liquor lobby and this was considered to be Ramakrishna Hegde’s ticket to success. From 2003 onwards an education lobby started controlling the politics of the state. The year 2007 saw the advent of two very infamous lobbies in Karnataka -- the mining and the real estate lobbies. Thanks to the mining lobby, the BJP is in a state of shambles. The mining mafias had so much clout that it managed to install persons in cabinet ranks in the government.
Real estate is the only lobby with money today. However, it would hardly make any difference because this lobby is able to control only pockets of Bangalore.
Real estate is the only lobby with money today. However, it would hardly make any difference because this lobby is able to control only pockets of Bangalore.
Holding that money power was a "serious issue" in poll-bound Karnataka, the Election Commission of India has said it was taking all steps to counter this menace.
Modi vs Rahul
It is Rahul Gandhi's first real leadership test after his elevation as Congress vice-president. While critics point to the failed Uttar Pradesh campaign, Rahul and his aides hope Karnataka will prove them wrong.
With the ruling BJP fighting corruption charges, it’s a good time for the Congress to cash in and fight for power once again.
With the ruling BJP fighting corruption charges, it’s a good time for the Congress to cash in and fight for power once again.
Experts are of the view that had Modi been unleashed on Karnataka’s voters a little earlier and at more poll rallies across the state, he might have helped at least to prevent an appalling defeat that seems to stare the BJP in the face.
Probable verdict?
Pre-election surveys predict a simple majority for the Congress. A CSDS survey done for CNN-IBN and Week has projected 117-129 seats for the grand old party. The BJP likely to get a paltry 39-49 seats — only a tad better than the 34-44 seats expected for the JD (S). The KJP is all set to play spoilsport for the saffron party, seen as taking away 7% of its votes and getting, along with the Independents, 14-22 seats.
Headlines Today and C-Voter survey gave the BJP a slightly better prospect, even while projecting the Congress as winner. It gave the BJP a slightly better 26% of votes with 52 seats against 118 for the Congress.
Constituencies to watch out for
Bellary: The mining region will have a keenly contested battle between the BSR Congress, BJP and the Congress.
Hubli-Dharwad Central: Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar seeks a re-election
Shikaripur: Home town and constituency of B S Yeddyurappa.
Ramnagar: Constituency of H D Kumaraswamy, former chief minister of Karnataka and JD-S leader.
Channapatana: H D Kumaraswamy's wife Anitha will be contesting on a JD-S ticket from this seat.
Politicians active on Facebook
G. Parameshwara, Congress, KPCC president, over 15,000 likes
B.S. Yeddyurappa, KJP, former chief minister, over 11,000 likes
H.D. Kumaraswamy, JDS, former chief minister, 9,299 likes
Jagadish Shettar, BJP, chief minister, around 7,500
R. Ashoka, BJP, deputy chief minister, 6,487 likes
