 "People stand in a long queue to withdraw money at an ATM in Allahabad")
The Global Trends report by the US National Intelligence Council released on Wednesday has said that the world will be keenly watching how India tames its growing Hindu nationalistic impulses.
The report titled ‘Global trends: The Paradox of Progress’ notes, “Newly urbanised populations tend to be more religious. Hindutva, or Hindu nationalism, is likewise a predominantly urban phenomenon in India: the most radical Hindutva political party, Shiv Sena, has governed India’s commercial center Mumbai for much of the past four decades.”
The report also draws a correlation between India’s rising male population and the growing prospect of violence and radicalisation. The report notes, “China and India are already seeing significant numbers of men without prospects for marriage. Gender imbalances take decades to correct, generating increased crime and violence in the meantime.”
The report’s observations couldn’t be further from the truth. India is in the midst of a full blown triple whammy. Not just is violent Hindutva on the rise, the country has recorded its lowest sex ratio in over five decades and the largest growth in urban population since independence. Add to this mixture 10 million young people joining the workforce every year without adequate job prospects and what you get is a country transforming into a tinderbox waiting to explode.
The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) doesn’t maintain separate data for crimes against religious minorities. Crime against Scheduled Castes (SCs) grew by 40% since 2013. Crime against Scheduled Tribes (STs) grew by 93% in the same period. A report by the Catholic Secular Forum, a Christian NGO released last year noted that there were 85 major instances of attacks against the Christian community. These included incidents like attacks on churches, disrespect to bibles and killing of pastors. The report had pointed a finger at growing Hindutva as one of the reasons for the surge in violence against the Christian community. NCRB data shows that conviction rates for riots and arson, which are primarily communal in nature, stood at around 17%. The conviction rates in riots and arson continue to be among the lowest in comparison to other violent crimes in India.
The only instance when crime declined in India was between 1951-1961. Coincidentally or otherwise, the proportion of females to males in independent India peaked in 1951. From 951 females for every 1,000 male children in 1961, the ratio according to the latest Census data stands at 943. The U.S intelligence report notes that India is projected to have 10-20% more men than women in the coming few years. The report says that India is increasingly seeing “significant numbers of men without prospects for marriage which have been linked to abnormal levels of crime and violence. Marriage market obstruction—whether from escalating costs, abnormal sex ratios, or high prevalence of polygyny—facilitates recruitment of young men into rebel and terrorist groups.”
Census data suggests that plummeting sex ratio driven marriage market disruption may be underway in India. Almost 57 million men between the ages of 20 and 34 are unmarried. Almost 253 million Hindu men remain unmarried. But they have only 192 million Hindu women to choose from. This chasm is much wider among Hindus in urban as compared to rural areas. For every 100 unmarried Hindu men in cities, there are 73 unmarried women. In rural areas the ratio stands at 76. These figures reinforce the notion hinted in the report that Hindutva ranks could swell with this favourable demographic of unmarried Hindu men.
And urbanisation in India is unprecedented than any other country in the world. World Bank data suggests that 33% of India’s population in 2015 stayed in urban areas. In 1961, only 18% of its population resided in cities. A United Nations report titled ‘2011 Revision of World Urbanisation Prospects’ released in 2012 had predicted that India would add almost 500 million to its urban population by 2050 – the largest among all nations in the world.
This potent mixture along with the changing political scenario in the country could provide violent Hindutva a breeding ground never seen before in the past. The US intelligence report notes, “The perceived threat of terrorism and the idea that Hindus are losing their identity in their homeland have contributed to the growing support for Hindutva, sometimes with violent manifestations and terrorism. India’s largest political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, increasingly is leading the government to incorporate Hindutva into policy, sparking increased tension in the current sizable Muslim minority.”
