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Advance Estimates for GDP: How accurate have they been over the years?

Advance Estimates have accurately projected the real GDP growth rate in three of the past 12 years

Topics
Indian Economy | India GDP growth

Indivjal Dhasmana 

Indian economy, GDP
The growth rate was actually higher than the Advance Estimate for 2009-10

Advance Estimates have accurately projected the real GDP growth rate in three of the past 12 years. In 2017-18, the second Advance Estimate was accurate, while the first one was not.

The growth rate was actually higher than the Advance Estimate for 2009-10. The first and second Advance Estimates were the same for 2019-20, but turned out to be wrong when the actual number came. It was probably because the first Advance Estimate came out on January 6 when the impact of Covid-19 was difficult to gauge.

Chart

However, the second Advance Estimate, presented on February 28, could not assess the impact. The data for 2020-21 will be released on Thursday.

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First Published: Wed, January 06 2021. 23:54 IST
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