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Fears about India's retail loan defaults overblown, says Macquarie

"the unanimous feedback has been that there has been a decline in the total loan book under moratorium from the 25-30% numbers reported as of end-May," analysts led by Suresh Ganapathy wrote in a note

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The Reserve Bank of India has allowed borrowers to delay monthly payments on their loans until the end of August, to provide some relief from a prolonged lockdown that has shuttered businesses and left millions jobless.

Bloomberg
The volume of Indian loans subject to moratorium is dropping, suggesting that fears about large-scale defaults on banks’ retail lending books may be overblown, according to analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd.

Based on soundings with home lending specialist Housing Development Finance Corp. and Indian banks, “the unanimous feedback has been that there has been a decline in the total loan book under moratorium from the 25–30% numbers reported as of end-May,” analysts led by Suresh Ganapathy wrote in a note.

It’s too early to calculate the new figure, but at HDFC the proportion of the retail loan book subject to deferral fell