)
The rate of economic growth refused to rise significantly in the fourth quarter of 2012-13, up only 4.8 per cent over the same quarter a year ago. Sequentially, too, the rise was marginal compared with the two-year-low rate of 4.7 per cent in the third quarter. The fact that the low base of 5.1 per cent growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2011-12 could not lift economic expansion in the quarter suggested the wait for the so-called green shoots of recovery might get longer.
The rate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in full 2012-13, at a decade low of five per cent, turned out to be the same as that projected by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in its advance estimates released in February. The finance ministry had been pinning its hopes on better fourth-quarter numbers to push the annual growth figures a bit higher.
Demand in the economy remained low, as private final consumption expenditure rose just 3.81 per cent in the fourth quarter, against 4.15 per cent in the previous quarter. Also, gross fixed capital formation, a proxy for investment rate, grew just 3.43 per cent, against 4.5 per cent in these two quarters.
However, the government's better management of its finances helped it compress expenditure. Its final consumption expenditure rose just 0.64 per cent, against 2.15 per cent in the last two quarters. This enabled the Centre to rein in its fiscal deficit at 4.89 per cent of GDP in 2012-13, against 5.2 per cent pegged in the revised estimates.
Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said: "I think there is evidence that the economy has bottomed out but we don't yet have evidence of strong recovery."
The largest sector of the country's economy - trade, hotels, transport and communication -drove GDP growth in 2012-13, expanding at 6.4 per cent, 1.2 percentage points higher than the 5.2 per cent pegged in advance estimates. The actual growth rates seen in most other sectors was, in fact, lower than the February estimates.
The mining & quarrying sector, which contracted 0.6 per cent against the advance-estimate projection of 0.4 per cent growth, was the worst-affected. This was a second straight quarter of contraction for the sector.
