You are here: Home » Economy & Policy » News
Business Standard

India to grow fastest at 8.5% in 2013-14

BS Reporter 

Survey sees scope for gradual rollback of stimulus measures.

A positive outlook has overtaken the pessimism of last year, with the government now expecting a double-digit growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) within the next four years. The Economic Survey 2009-10 sees India growing the fastest by 2013-14, provided it is able to overcome infrastructure and bureaucratic constraints.

It has predicted 8.5 per cent growth for 2010-11 and 9 per cent for 2011-12. With this confidence, the Survey also sees a “scope for a gradual rollback” of stimulus measures. “The broad-based nature of the recovery creates scope for a gradual rollback, in due course, of some of the measures undertaken over the last 15-18 months, as part of the policy response to the global slowdown, so as to put the economy back on to the growth path of 9 per cent per annum,” it says.

The optimism for next year comes from a revival in exports, manufacturing, infrastructure and investment and private consumption demand along with a favourable capital market.

The Survey notes with concern that for the emerging economies, which are already on the path to recovery, there are challenges emanating from increased capital flows with ramifications for monetary growth, inflation and exchange rate uncertainty, along with policy implications for the capital account.

ROBUST GDP GROWTH                                                   Rs crore
GDP of factor cost, 2004-05 prices 2008-09 (QE) 2009-10 (AE)
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 6,50,461      (1.6) 6,49,370    (-0.2)
Manufacturing 6,49,635       (3.2) 7,07,512     (8.9)
Construction 3,32,782      (5.9) 3,54,514     (6.5)
Trade, Hotels, Transport and 
10,84,764    (7.6) 11,74,320    (8.3)
Financing, insurance, real estate 
& business services
7,01,338    (10.1) 7,70,443     (9.9)
Community, social & 
personal services,
5,55,382     (13.9) 6,00,980     (8.2)
GDP at factor cost 41,54,973    (6.7) 44,53,064   (7.2)
(Figures in brackets represent annual growth)

It says the real turnaround in the domestic economy came in the second quarter of 2009-10, when the economy grew by 7.9 per cent. The recovery came despite a 0.2 per cent decline in agricultural output since manufacturing growth more than doubled to 8.9 per cent in 2009-10 from 3.2 per cent in 2008-09. Besides, there has been a recovery in the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation, which had declined significantly in 2008-09.

Dear Reader,

Business Standard has always strived hard to provide up-to-date information and commentary on developments that are of interest to you and have wider political and economic implications for the country and the world. Your encouragement and constant feedback on how to improve our offering have only made our resolve and commitment to these ideals stronger. Even during these difficult times arising out of Covid-19, we continue to remain committed to keeping you informed and updated with credible news, authoritative views and incisive commentary on topical issues of relevance.
We, however, have a request.

As we battle the economic impact of the pandemic, we need your support even more, so that we can continue to offer you more quality content. Our subscription model has seen an encouraging response from many of you, who have subscribed to our online content. More subscription to our online content can only help us achieve the goals of offering you even better and more relevant content. We believe in free, fair and credible journalism. Your support through more subscriptions can help us practise the journalism to which we are committed.

Support quality journalism and subscribe to Business Standard.

Digital Editor

First Published: Fri, February 26 2010. 00:49 IST