Jobs lost, wages cut: India's world-beating GDP masks pain of the pandemic

An economy that performs well below potential for too long will suffer a permanent loss, writes Andy Mukherjee.

Before the ink could dry on India’s quarterly gross domestic product statistics, officials have been quick to parade last quarter’s 20% growth as vindication of their prediction of “imminent V-shaped recovery.” How sensible is that claim?

The April-June period was when the pandemic overwhelmed oxygen supplies and hospital beds, villagers floated bodies in rivers or left them in shallow graves, families sold their assets to save their loved ones, and an estimated 2.5 million to 2.8 million Indians died because of Covid-19, according to independent researchers.

Statistical artifacts may serve to deny the pain. But GDP expanded 20% from a