An uptick in the monsoon in the first 10 days of July has failed to push up sowing of kharif crops, raising a big question mark over this season’s yield of paddy, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton.
Officials said planting after July 15 could lead to lower yield with every passing day, except for pulses and paddy in some areas. “I believe the time for waiting was till July 15, and after that every single day will become precious from crop yields point of view,” said the chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), Ashok Gulati. There are fears that foodgrain production in 2012-2013 could fall by 10-12 million tonnes because of delayed and uneven rains, the CACP chief said.
According to the latest data from the agriculture ministry, the area under all major kharif crops, barring jute and sugarcane, is less than the normal. Overall, the total kharif acreage till last week was around 18 per cent less than the normal, with coarse cereals, paddy, oilseeds and pulses being the worst effected
| STATUS AT RESERVOIRS Water levels in several reservoirs are below comfort levels |
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The area under coarse cereals is around half the normal at 3.97 million hectares, that under paddy is 13.3 per cent less than normal area, while pulses acreage is almost 38 per cent less than the normal area at 2.05 million hectares.
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“I am particularly worried about pulses, as domestic prices have already started flaring in anticipation of a bad year,” Gulati said. He said even a 10 per cent drop in production of pulses could push up domestic prices by 30-40 per cent, as import dependency will rise. Also of worry is oilseeds, the area under which is 14 per cent less than normal.
P K Joshi, Director-South Asia, of the International Food Policy Research Institute, said: “From now on, distribution of rainfall, rather than its quantum, will be crucial for agriculture. Even if the total rainfall is less but the spread is even, we could salvage the situation.”
Adding to the grim situation are falling water levels in 84 major reservoirs, which are major sources of water during the rabi sowing season that starts from October, when monsoon exits India. According to the latest data from the Central Water Commission, of the 84 reservoirs, 72 have water levels below 40 per cent of the full reservoir level.
Water levels in reservoirs in no state across the country — except for Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — are above normal level as of last week.
“This is extremely crucial, as low water in reservoirs could have a direct bearing on rabi sowing as well,” Gulati added.
