Macro troubles: Why the Indian economy faces an ominous New Year in 2018

Just as growth appears to be no longer a pressing problem, another familiar threat has reappeared: India's macroeconomic numbers don't look quite as stable as they should.

You’d think the Indian economy had returned to rosy health. It seems to have recovered from two enormous disruptions -- Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision just over a year ago to withdraw 86 percent of the currency in circulation, and the poorly-planned rollout in the middle of 2017 of a new goods-and-services tax. Exports are no longer declining, as they had for several quarters; indeed, for the last month that data is available, they rose 30 percent. The Purchasing Managers’ Index expanded the fastest it has in five years. At least one international ratings agency has upgraded India’s credit rating.