The southwest monsoon is expected to start withdrawing from the western parts of Rajasthan around September 15-20, eight to 10 days behind the expected time of departure.
This, experts said, should augur well for sowing of early rabi crops, expected to start from late October. Wheat, mustard and pulses are the main rabi sowing crops.
“As of now conditions are good for the southwest monsoon. Hence, it might not withdraw quickly and could start retreating from September 15-20,” said D S Pai, director of Long Range Forecast in the India Meteorological Department.
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Usually, the monsoon starts withdrawing from western Rajasthan from the first week of September. By early October, it does so from all parts of the country, ending its four-month journey over the Indian subcontinent that starts from June 1.
IMD says the monsoon is considered to have withdrawn from an area if there is cessation of rainfall activity for five continuous days, considerable reduction in moisture content and establishment of anti-cyclone in the troposphere. “As of now, none of the conditions have firmly established themselves over western Rajasthan,” an official said.
Met department officials said rainfall by the end of the season should be normal, in line with the second stage forecast made on June 22. The IMD had then said the cumulative rainfall across the country would be 96 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). Rainfall is considered normal when within 96-104 per cent of the LPA. LPA is the average rainfall across the country during the four-month southwest monsoon season during a 50-year period starting from 1951. It is estimated to be around 89 centimetres.
“As of Thursday, India has received rainfall equivalent to 90 per cent of LPA and there could be some more rain. Hence, it will make up for the remaining deficiency,” Pai said.
IMD said between June 1 and September 6, the country got 685.7 millimetres of rain, just nine per cent below normal. During the week ended September 5, India received the heaviest rainfall of the season, at 31 per cent above normal.
Also, the El Niño weather phenomenon, expected to suck up late rains, leading to its early withdrawal from India, failed to make an impact.
Agriculture and allied activities grew 2.9 per cent in the first quarter of this financial year, against 3.7 per cent in the corresponding period of 2011-12.
“El Niño has already appeared over the countries around the Pacific Ocean but it did not have much of an impact on Indian rains, as, first of all, it is a weak El Niño, and secondly, its impact has been countered by strong western disturbances in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal,” Pai said.
In July, the El Niño anomaly was 0.5 per cent, in August it was 0.6 and in September, it was 0.9 per cent. “This is just borderline El Niño, which has been countered by western disturbances,” Pai said.
The Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has projected farm output to grow by 0.5 per cent this financial year against 2.8 per cent in 2011-12.
