Rain revival not to salvage kharif production loss

The southwest monsoon is now just 8% below normal,a turnaround from a deficit from around 20% iin end July

Even as the southwest monsoon prepares to leave India after giving near normal rains during the four-month monsoon season, production of some important crops like paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and coarse cereals could witness a fall in this Kharif season
compared to the previous one.

Officials in the agriculture department are now in the process of estimating the impact of slow start of monsoon on overall crop production during the kharif harvest season.

The southwest monsoon is now just 8 per cent below normal, showing a remarkable turnaround from a deficit from around 20 per cent in end July.

The first official estimate of 2012-2013 kharif output is expected to be released sometime later.  In end July, agriculture secretary Ashish Bahuguna had said that deficient rains would have an impact on the kharif production. He did not quantify the
loss then.

Though, the overall monsoon and sowing situation has changed dramatically since then, a renowned farm economist, who did not wish to named said there is bound to be some impact on final production of foodgrains, pulses, oilseeds and also cotton as compared
to last year due to slow start and deficiency in rains in June and July.

He said production of rice, the main foodgrains sown during the kharif season could be around 4-5 million tonnes less than last year. A crop year runs from June to July.

In 2011-2012 kharif season, India produced a record 91.53 million tonnes of rice. This year till last Friday, the overall acreage in paddy is around 1.57 million hectares less than 2011-2012.

Assuming an average per hectare yield rice at 2.5 tonnes per hectare, straightaway, 4 million tonnes output is lost. “Though, there would be some improvement in acreage in the coming weeks, but it is very unlikely that the entire loss in area would be recouped,” a senior official from the ministry said.

He said the standing paddy crop which has been sown in around 35 million hectares till September 7, won’t give the same yield as it would have given if rains were to be normal.

“In that case another 5-7 per cent would be lost from the standing crop itself which translates into a drop in production of 4.5 million tonnes in rice,” he explained.

In coarse cereals, the area unsown till last week is around 2.18 million hectares.  Assuming an average yield of 1.5 tonnes per hectare, the total output is expected to fall by around 3.3-3.5 million tonnes as compared to last year.

In 2011-2012, India produced around 32.2 million tonnes of coarse cereals during the kharif season. “In coarse cereals, some items like maize give a per hectare average yield of 2 tonnes, while sorghum gives much less, but for the sake of calculating  we
take it as 1.5 tonnes,” the economist said.

In pulses, officials said around 0.61 million hectares is unsown till last week.

If the entire area does not get covered in the next few days, a loss of almost 1.5 million tonnes production can be expected as compared to last year.

Last year, India produced around 0.93 million tonnes of pulses in the kharif sowing season. “If we put all these together, then overall foodgrains production during the kharif season is expected to fall by around 12-14 million tonnes during the kharif
season,” he said.

In 2011-2012, India’s kharif foodgrains production stood at 129.94 million tonnes. In oilseeds, the analyst explained that as of last week, the total acreage is around 0.52 million hectares less than last year.

Farm minister Sharad Pawar agreed. "Though situation has improved considerably, but production of coarse cereals, pulses
and oilseeds won't be the same as last year as rains have come late. In rice, too, though there has been no loss in area but production will be less as compared to last year because of initial low rains," he said.

In cotton, too, the area sown is around 0.56 million hectares less than last year. “There would be drop in production as standing crop has been affected in Gujarat, the biggest producing state. Gujarat gives the highest per hectare cotton yield of 900
kilograms,” the official said.

If official numbers match with these estimates, the overall yield scenario might not a big improvement despite improvement in rains from August onwards.

“One thing must be remembered that the rains appeared quite late and it will surely have an impact on the yields,” the analyst explained.