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India’s manufacturing gross value added (GVA) declined in six out of 14 quarters since the economy started slowing down in 2019-20. This included a 4.3 per cent contraction in the second quarter of this financial year when the economy expanded 6.3 per cent.

Physical volume, as measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), fell as well in 14 out of 42 months over this period.

Does this mean that manufacturing has hit a structural issue or was it a blip in the second quarter when input prices increased due to external geopolitical conditions?

Pronab Sen, the former chief statistician,