 "Manmohan Singh with Shinzo Abe")
No one in Japan denies the greatness of China, I mean the Chinese people … Under Chinese influence Japan started to build up her own civilization. But I do not know why we should not oppose the misguided government of China for the old debt we owe her people," Japanese poet Yone Noguchi had told Rabindranath Tagore in a correspondence on Japanese Aggression of 1938.
Noguchi was expressing the rising discontent amongst the Japanese about the expansionist move China was making under its political and military leader Chiang Kai-shek.
India and Japan have enjoyed a unique diplomatic relationship over the decades. However, it appears that it is only now that Japan is realising a more deeper and comprehensive entrenchment with India could be a potential weapon to keep the Chinese threat at bay.
While Japan and China never really enjoyed an ideal relationship, the strategic ties also suffered a major setback with the growth of the Chinese economy at a blistering pace. In contrast, Japan, which was once considered an economic powerhouse, has experienced a gradual fall in its growth rates. This proved to be stressful geopolitically as well when China started spending lavishly to modernise its military that aided its growing territorial designs. This was viewed with extreme suspicion in Japan and invited sharp criticism from its political circles.
At the turn of the millennium, Japan started shifting its strategy. It looked at India with much more interest than it did in the past. In 2000, both countries established the 'Global Partnership in the 21st Century' under the then prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and his Japanese counterpart, Yoshiro Mori.
Japan previously had undertaken such an initiative only with the US whom it consider its natural ally. Ever since, India and Japan have been investing in each other across sectors.
Besides trade, more visible efforts are also being made to build diplomatic ties with each other. Last month, Japan's Emperor Akihito arrived in Delhi on what was his first visit to any South Asian country after ascending the throne in 1990. Accompanying him was his wife, Empress Michiko. This was a hugely symbolic visit as the emperor is seen as the centre of Japanese culture. The last time the couple visted was in 1960, when they came as the newly-wed prince and princess. And two weeks from now, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be in Delhi as the chief guest at the Republic Day function. He is coming here with a business delegation.
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Bilateral trade between Japan and India in 2011-12 increased by 33.55 per cent to $18.327 billion, compared to $13.723 billion in 2010-11 when trade had increased by 32.42 per cent over the previous year.
The number of Japanese firms operating in India has reached over 900. India remains the second favourite investment destination for Japanese companies after China, according to a survey by the Japan Bank of International Cooperation.
Most of the Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) in India is in the manufacturing sector. The main sectors are automobiles, electronics and other allied sectors. But India is hoping to see an increase across the board in FDI from Japan, including in the service sectors (both financial and non-financial). To encourage more investment in India, Japan has decided to open its second business support centre in Mumbai. Japan also ranks third in terms of technology transfers to India, according to a research done by the Confederation of Indian Industry.
According to experts, Japan is now planning to gradually make India its manufacturing hub, especially with more Japanese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) which form the backbone of the country's economy.
"It is very obvious. The Japanese are trying to enlist India against China. With more and more Japanese firms facing a backlash in China, the Japanese now have nowhere else to go to but India," says Sanjana Joshi, senior consultant and an expert in Japanese studies at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. "India is its economic insurance. The US cannot be its sole guarantor. On the other hand, India now wants Japan to invest here the way it did in China through its SMEs. Japan is now going to compete with the Chinese influence in India, but it wants a presence similar to what Korea enjoys with companies like LG and Samsung that have become household names," Joshi adds. Japanese SMEs, says Joshi, are increasingly feeling the heat of the anti-Japanese threat in China. As a result, these firms are now planning to make India their second hub so that in times of emergencies, it can use India as an effective backup.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Japanese diplomat says that Japan wants to integrate with India like no other country has done. Japan is also planning to help India in developing the northeastern region and integrating it with Myanmar and Southeast Asia.
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Tensions between Japan and China have swelled in recent time with the latter exercising its military might around the Senkaku Islands, a clutch of islands in East China Sea, which is claimed by Japan. The South China Sea acts as one of the main commercial arteries for global trade. The outbreak of war, though it looks implausible, has not been rejected by experts. According to Cambridge's Centre for Risk Studies, outbreak of a full-fledged conflict can prove to be disastrous for the global economy as it might lead to a recession that could last between eight months and four years causing a loss of tens of trillions of dollars.
India has been the largest recipient of Japanese overseas development assistance (ODA) since 2003-04. In the financial year 2006-07, the Japanese government committed 184.9 billion Yen for 11 projects in India. This was the largest ever commitment made by Japan to India in a single financial year. In 2008-09, India received ODA of $2.5 billion, which was almost 30 per cent of Japan's global ODA.
Japan is involved in some of the country's marquee infrastructure projects, such as the Metro rail network, Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor and the Bangalore-Chennai Corridor, involving billions of dollars of investment.
Thus, some observers also believe that the relationship, which goes a long way, cannot be looked solely through the China perspective. "Japan has been a true friend of India. It has stood by India during every economic crisis," says Srikanth Kondapalli, chairperson, Centre for East Asian Studies (School of International Studies), Jawaharlal Nehru University. "Japanese companies have generated millions of jobs here. So the China factor does not come in here at all. India is now keen to get the Japanese technology into the country to help boost its manufacturing sector. Japan might be having a problem with China, but that has got nothing to do with how it views India," Kondapalli adds.
Unlike with China, India never faced a political or military stand-off with Japan, except for a few instances like when Japan imposed sanctions on India after the Pokhran nuclear tests.
Recently, talks on a civil nuclear deal with Japan have also seen a slowdown. India, it seems, is going easy with the negotiations in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident in March 2011. These minor hiccups apart, the bonds between India and Japan are only getting stronger. And the China factor is one of the reason.
