Will the RBI's efforts to tame inflation, manage growth fail? UBS thinks so

UBS has downgraded India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for fiscal 2022-23 (FY23) to 7 per cent from the earlier forecast of 7.7 per cent. Beyond FY23, they expect the GDP growth to settle at a trend rate of 6 per cent and see inflation remaining above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) comfort level for a few more quarters. 

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High global commodity prices (largely energy) and slower global growth on Russia-Ukraine conflict and China's COVID-19 led slowdown in the June quarter; real income shock from energy price hikes, inflationary pressures and the labour market's incomplete recovery resulting in weakness in domestic demand;