Lok Sabha election: Rural distress, PM-KISAN may set winners in 290 seats

'Rural' and 'semi-rural' seats account for over 80% of the total 513 Lok Sabha constituencies for which data was analysed

An estimated 290 parliamentary constituencies could see rural distress and the recently launched PM-KISAN scheme play a crucial role during Lok Sabha elections 2019, data suggests.  

India has at least 290 'rural' and 131 'semi-rural' Lok Sabha constituencies out of the 513 for which a categorisation was done based on Census 2011 data (See table: Rural and urban Lok Sabha constituencies in India). The country has 543 Lok Sabha constituencies at present. Constituencies where the urban population was found to be less than 25 per cent have been labelled as rural, while semi-rural constituencies are those with urban population greater than or equal to 25 per cent but less than 50 per cent.



The higher a constituency's rural population, the greater would be the proportion of its electors who earn their livelihood from agriculture and might decide who to vote for based on agrarian issues.    

Of the 282 seats that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won in the 2014 elections, 267 seats were among the 513 categorised ones. Of those 267 seats, 156 were rural (around 58.42 per cent) and 69 semi-rural. Of the 39 categorised seats that the Indian National Congress (INC) won — it bagged 44 in total — 24 were rural (61.53 per cent) and eight semi-rural constituencies. (See table: Rural and semi-rural seats won by major parties). Rural seats clearly formed the bedrock of BJP's victory in 2014.



The number of semi-urban Lok Sabha seats in which the urban population is greater than or equal to 50 per cent but less than 75 per cent, stood at 46. Urban seats, with 75 per cent or more urban population, also numbered 46. Thirty constituencies from Union Territories, including Delhi, and the states of Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, and Tripura were not part of the data set. Data for individual constituencies was sourced from Datanet India's Constituency Factbook.   

Rural distress by the numbers

Numbers provided by the Second Advance Estimates of National Income, 2018-19, at the end of the last month indicate growing rural distress. 

Agriculture and allied activities growth for 2018-19 has been estimated at 2.7 per cent, down from five per cent in 2017-18. 

Factoring in the gross value added for agriculture and allied activities in 2018-19 at current prices suggests that farm product prices will rise by just 0.5 per cent this year, down from two per cent in 2017-18. (See table: Gross value added for agriculture and allied activities) 

Gross value added for agriculture and allied activities

According to Second Advance Estimates of National Income 2018-19. Source: CSO
 

 

Business Standard had reported earlier that from a high of 8.88 per cent in 2014-15, the rate of growth in agriculture prices has been constantly falling in the past five years. Further, as of January this year, farm-gate prices of most commodities had slumped in the four-and-half-years of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, due to the fall in global commodity prices, oversupply in domestic markets, and a decline in demand. 

During the five-year term of the NDA government, rural wages for non-farm and farm employment have grown by just 0.5 per cent in real terms annually, showed an Indian Express article that studied rural wages over the past five years using Labour Bureau data. In only three of those five years has rural wage growth, which is measured year-to-year in December every year, been greater than rural consumer price inflation. A similar trend emerges when non-farm employment is considered alone. Based on the above, a recent Business Standard editorial said that the next government needed to pay careful attention to these clear signs that rural distress was increasing.

Further, a large difference between wholesale inflation for food items and that for non-food items is evident. Wholesale inflation for food items in December 2018 was -0.07 per cent, while it was 4.45 per cent for non-food items. The Business Standard editorial described this as a sign that "the terms of trade have turned decisively against agriculture".

However, this gap has narrowed in the months since December. Wholesale inflation for food articles in February stood at 4.28 per cent, while it was 5.05 per cent for non-food articles. Wholesale inflation for food articles in January stood at 2.34 per cent, while it was 4.06 per cent for non-food articles.   

PM-KISAN's electoral significance

The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme's role as a vote catcher is highlighted, among other things, by the fact that rural constituencies account for a little over half (56.53 per cent) of the 513 categorised constituencies in the country. Taken together, rural and semi-rural seats account for 82.06 per cent of the total categorised Lok Sabha constituencies.    

As reported earlier, a fourth of all PM-KISAN beneficiaries would be from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which together account for 120 seats. Together, Uttar Pradesh (60) and Bihar (39) also account for over a third (34 per cent) of all rural seats in the country.   

The income support scheme was announced in the Interim Budget 2019 and formally launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 24. Under it, Rs 6,000 per year would be disbursed in three instalments to around 125 million small and marginal farmers who hold cultivable land of up to two hectares.     

As on March 11, 2019, the central government had reportedly transferred Rs 5,215 crore to over 26 million farmers under the scheme.  

The scheme's beneficiaries would get Rs 2,000 for the financial year 2019 since it has been implemented retrospectively. As reported earlier, if the central government transfers the first instalment for financial year 2020 in April, the beneficiaries would get a total of Rs 4,000 each just ahead of the general elections.   

Rural seats dominate electorally crucial states   

In at least three of the top five states by number of Lok Sabha seats, rural and semi-rural seats account for the lion's share. 

In Uttar Pradesh, rural and semi-rural seats add up to 74 seats of the total of 80. In West Bengal, which has the third highest number of Lok Sabha seats, rural and semi-rural seats add up to 32 seats out of the total of 42. In Bihar, rural seats alone account for 39 of the total 40 seats. 

In Maharashtra, 33 seats of the total 48 belong to the rural and semi-rural categories, while that number stands at 23 out of the total of 39 seats for Tamil Nadu. (See table: Rural and semi-rural split in top 5 electorally crucial states)



However, the electoral outcomes in some of these states will also depend on political alliances, along with other poll planks such as national security and unemployment. 

Working out the alliance math

The bellwether state, Uttar Pradesh, has seen a coming together of the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) against the BJP. An alliance between these parties and the Congress, however, could not materialise, and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav told news agencies last week that it was "too late now", as the seat-sharing had been finalised.  

The Congress, for its part, has reportedly announced that it will leave more than a dozen Lok Sabha seats for other parties, including seven seats for the SP-BSP-RLD alliance in the state. The Congress also said it will leave two seats for the Apna Dal. Further, it has entered into an electoral agreement with the Jan Adhikar Party. 

The Apna Dal's Krishna Patel faction has forged an alliance with the Congress and finalised a seat-sharing arrangement in Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile, Apna Dal (S), a faction led by Anupriya Patel, had entered into an alliance with BJP and will be contesting on two seats in the state.

In the second bellwether state, Maharashtra, the BJP and the Shiv Sena overcame their strained ties last month and announced a seat-sharing pact for the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Maharashtra. Out of the total 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, the BJP will contest 25 seats and the Shiv Sena 23. Meanwhile, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress have also finalised a seat-sharing agreement for their alliance in Maharashtra.
 
In Bihar, the three NDA constituents -- the BJP, Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) -- have announced the names of candidates for the state's 40 Lok Sabha constituencies. The BJP and the JD(U) will contest 17 seats each, while the LJP will contest in six. Meanwhile, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is not ready to give more than eight Lok Sabha seats to the Congress, which has already announced candidates for 11 seats, news agencies have reported, citing unnamed sources. The two 'Mahagathbandhan' parties have reportedly not arrived at a conclusion over seat sharing in Bihar. The RJD, Congress, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, Hindustani Awam Morcha, Lok Jantrantrik Dal and Vikas Sheel Insaan Party constitute the grand alliance formed by the Opposition in the state. 

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK-led NDA alliance includes the BJP, Pattali Makkal Katchi, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, Puthiya Neethi Katchi and Puthiya Tamizhagam as its constituents. On the other hand, the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu, christened the 'Secular Progressive Alliance', consists of the Congress, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India, Vaiko-led Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Indian Union Muslim League, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi, and Indiya Jananayaga Katchi.    

The proposed Congress-CPI(M) alliance in West Bengal reportedly fell apart on Tuesday, setting the stage for a four-cornered contest in which the main contenders are the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. The Congress on Wednesday decided to leave five seats for the Left Front in the state. However, the Grand Old Party said that it would field candidates in the two seats won by the Left parties in the 2014 general elections. The Congress has announced candidates for 11 West Bengal constituencies, including the CPI(M)-held Murshidabad and Raiganj seats.