Lok Sabha polls 2019: Why it's an even contest between DMK and AIADMK

What seemed like a cakewalk for the DMK and its partners does not seem so now

The two major political parties in Tamil Nadu are in the process of finalising poll alliances for the Lok Sabha elections in the absence of their supreme leaders — the late J Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK and her arch rival, the late M Karunanidhi of the DMK.
 
The AIADMK has announced an alliance with the PMK and BJP on the auspicious full moon day last week. In the “mega alliance”, as the AIADMK calls it, the BJP will get five seats of the 39 in Tamil Nadu, while the PMK will get seven and a Rajya Sabha seat. The PMK and BJP will support the AIADMK in all the 21 assembly seats where by-elections are pending after the demise of three MLAs, including Karunanidhi, and the expulsion of 18 AIADMK MLAs who expressed their lack of confidence in Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS).
 
Soon after, the DMK, led by M K Stalin, announced its alliance with the Congress, which will get nine seats in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry, and is in talks with some smaller parties. While there was speculation that the PMK was in talks with the DMK, the party denied it.
 

Who stands where
 
Experts say the AIADMK has won the first round by roping in the PMK, which has 10 per cent vote in northern Tamil Nadu. The AIADMK has been suffering from infighting and factionalism since the death of Jayalalithaa, and became enervated with the split of the TTV Dhinakaran faction, leaving it in a weaker position, they said.
 
“Earlier I thought election was just a formality, and the DMK alliance will sweep it. Now I think it would be a fairly even fight, with the AIADMK and PMK combined to be more competitive in western Tamil Nadu and the parts where the PMK has more strength. The AIADMK has done its homework well and the BJP helped it,” says political commentator Sumanth C Raman.
 
BJP President Amit Shah visited Tamil Nadu on Friday and asked his party workers to ensure victory for the alliance in all the 40 seats.
 
Ensuring PMK votes for the Assembly by-elections has been a smart move by the AIADMK. Those votes would be critical since almost seven of the 21 seats vacant in the Assembly are in areas where the PMK is strong. This would help EPS to retain power in the state for the rest of his tenure.

In the 2016 Assembly elections, the PMK secured around 5.32 per cent vote, the BJP 2.84 per cent, the AIADMK 40.77 per cent, and the DMDK 2.39 per cent. The DMK had 31.64 per cent while the Congress had 6.42 per cent.
In the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the BJP registered 5.56 per cent vote, the Congress 4.37 per cent, the AIADMK 44.92 per cent, the DMDK 5.19 per cent and DMK 23.91 per cent.

In 2014, the AIADMK had won 37 of the 39 seats, while the BJP and PMK won one each. The BJP then had an alliance in Tamil Nadu with regional parties, including the PMK and DMDK, and contested in seven seats, leaving the rest to the allies.
The AIADMK is currently the largest party in the Lok Sabha after the BJP and the Congress.

The AIADMK alliance also may help shore up caste votes, with a Gounder leader in EPS, a Tevar leader in O Panneerselvam, and a Nadar in Pon Radhakrishnan while the PMK will ensure the Vanniyar vote bank. It is a rainbow coalition of middle castes, said M R Venkatesh, a business strategy and political expert.

The BJP either had to ally with the AIADMK or go it alone. Both the parties may have to fight the anti-incumbency wave, if there is one, together.

S Raveenthran Duraisamy, a political expert, says the contest would be on three levels: The first will be the Edappadi vs Stalin (AIADMK vs DMK) fight in a majority of constituencies; the second is the S Ramadoss (the founder of PMK) and anti-Ramadoss in places where the PMK is strong; and third is the Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi fight in areas where traditional voters and minority voters are more.

The DMK has relied more on its traditional allies. Actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) is yet to join an alliance though leaders of both the alliances have met him.

Though Stalin visited DMDK leader Vijayakanth at his house on Friday, he refused any political discussion held in the meeting. Neither the AIADMK nor the DMK may be able to spare more than four seats to the DMDK, which might choose its partner by the time this copy goes to print.

Rajinikanth has stated his party will not contest in the Lok Sabha election and have Assembly elections as his target. The Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) of Dhinakaran is expected to field candidates in 38 constituencies. 

Kamal Haasan’s party will contest in all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu and the one seat in Puducherry.

Experts note that EPS has emerged as a leader in this process.

“Between 2017, when he started as chief minister, and 2019, it seems he has become the Narasimha Rao of the AIADMK. Not much was expected from him and he had a wafer-thin majority. He has overcome all these challenges and has done reasonably well,” says Venkatesh.