Off the mark: Pollsters faltered in Gujarat again, and in Himachal as well

In Himachal, the election was more closely fought than 2017. In five of the 68 seats, the margin was less than 500 compared to three in 2017.

The winning margin in 8 seats was less than 1,000. In 2017, there were 6 such seats.

In Gujarat, the number of seats won on smaller margins had redu­ced.

Only two seats had a margin of less than 1,000 against 7 last time.

 

Margin increase in Gujarat
 

In Gujarat, the BJP seems to have trounced the exit polls as well. While the poll of polls had predicted it to win 132 seats, it secured 156.

Analysis shows just 20% of the pollsters were able to get forecast right (analysis considers 5% error margin).

This is not the first time that pollsters have got Gujarat results wrong.