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Interim Budget 2019: Pausing to pump-prime, says CRISIL's Dharmakirti Joshi

India's growth in fiscal 2020 will be driven largely by exogenous or luck factors and, to some extent, by budgetary initiatives

Dharmakirti Joshi
premium

Dharmakirti Joshi

Dharmakirti Joshi
The interim Budget was framed under the backdrop of farm distress and a slowing global economy with risks tilted to the downside. India’s growth in fiscal 2020 will be driven largely by exogenous or luck factors and, to some extent, by budgetary initiatives. 

Two of these are the price of crude oil and monsoon. Brent crude at $60-65 per barrel and another spell of normal rains, along with budgetary support, can help lift India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate to 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020.

The interim Budget anyway had limited ability to push growth, given