Seeking to quell the surge in living costs, the US Federal Reserve accelerated its monetary-tightening campaign last week, executing the biggest interest-rate hike since 1994. (Photo: Bloomberg)
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists warned the risk of a US recession has grown more likely, and have downgraded their gross domestic product growth forecasts for the economy.
The Goldman economists now see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year, compared to 15% previously, and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first, they wrote in a Monday research note. That implies a 48% cumulative probability in the next two years compared to a 35% estimate previously.
“We now see recession risk as higher and more front-load,” economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in the note. “The main reasons are that our baseline growth path
First Published: Jun 21 2022 | 10:32 AM IST