3 decisions, starting with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and followed on successive days by peers in the UK and Japan, may recast the global monetary policy landscape for rest of 2026 and beyond
Domestically, the dollar was whipsawed by a shifting Fed outlook through the week, leaving gold caught between a structurally softer greenback and rising rate-hike probability.
The CME FedWatch tool signals that market participants are pricing in a 58 per cent chance of a hike, as against 45 per cent a month ago.
Asian shares rose as investors awaited key US jobs data, while the yen rallied 2.6% this week after Fed Governor Christopher Waller eased fears of a rate hike
The dollar held firm near a two-week high after Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks lifted expectations of a September rate hike, while the yen slipped below 160 per dollar
Warsh used a keynote speech to hammer home a message that curbing inflation is the central bank's top priority
Economists estimate the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will show a 55,000 increase in payrolls after an unexpected dip in July employment
Markets expect the Fed will raise rates in December as inflation remains elevated, while a sharp rise in bond yields indicates that investors are also pricing in some chance of a September move
Spot gold was up 0.9 per cent at $4,643.63 per ounce, as of 0644 GMT, the highest level since mid May. Prices gained more than 5 per cent last week
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is under pressure to offer clearer guidance on interest rates and inflation at Jackson Hole, as investors assess sticky price pressures and the outlook for monetary policy
A senior Federal Reserve official has warned that lower- and middle-income Americans are struggling to make ends meet, while the central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation stays high
The RBI's decision to hold rates reflects easing inflation risks for now, but rising price pressures could warrant policy tightening in the coming months
Dovish FOMC outcome is supportive of higher gold prices in very short term, though oil prices can cut the rally short.
The Fed's decision to hold rates while signalling a hawkish stance has heightened uncertainty, leaving investors to navigate volatile stock and bond markets without clear forward guidance
Warsh, who took over as Fed chair in May, has said he has "no tolerance" for inflation that has remained above the central bank's 2 per cent target for more than five years
Domestic currency settles at 95.65 per dollar as RBI intervention, equity gains and short-covering offset pressure from higher crude oil prices
Fed policy preview: The bigger risk for the market lies not in the rate decision itself but in the possibility of a more hawkish tone than markets currently anticipate.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan face key policy decisions as rising oil prices, inflation risks and tariffs cloud the global economic outlook
Gold and silver are heading into a crucial week, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, oil price movement and the US-Iran conflict determining whether bullion extends its recovery or comes under renewed pressure, analysts said. Apart from the Fed's decision, investors will monitor US Consumer Confidence, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, weekly jobless claims and monetary policy announcements by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. "Market sentiment will continue to be driven by developments in the US-Iran geopolitical situation, the direction of crude oil prices, and their impact on inflation expectations ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision on July 29," said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities. On the domestic front, gold futures for August delivery rose Rs 2,200, or 1.6 per cent, to close at Rs 1.43 lakh per 10 grams during the last week. Silver futures for September delivery gain
Three days of Group of Seven rate decisions, starting with the US Fed, followed by peers at the Bank of England and Bank of Japan, may show vigilance at the prospect of energy-driven inflation