The winners and losers of Trump tax plan

The tax plan the Trump administration released Wednesday consists (so far) of a single page of bullet points. If this were a more rounded plan, we could wait for the tax wonks at various think tanks to run it through their models and tell with some precision how it would affect people at different income levels and who would benefit from different deductions.

Winners

Businesses with high tax rates: The plan would cut the 35% corporate income tax to 15% 

High-income earners: The plan would reduce the top rate on individual income tax — now 39.6% for income over around $470,000 for a married couple  to 35%

People with creative accountants: The 15% business tax rate could open a huge loophole for people to receive business income through a limited liability company 

Multimillionaires who want to pass money to their heirs tax-free: The plan would eliminate the estate tax, which currently applies to individuals with estates of $5.5 million 

People who still fill out their tax returns by hand: Administration officials said the plan would simplify paying taxes

Retailers and other companies that feared a “border adjustment tax” The Trump administration did not embrace House Republicans’ big strategy to pay for the tax cut

Losers

Upper-middle-income people in blue states: The plan would eliminate the federal tax deduction for state and local income tax. 

Deficit hawks: The Trump plan doesn’t come with any estimates of its impact on the federal deficit. But his campaign plan was estimated by the analysts at the Tax Policy Center to reduce federal revenue by $6.2 trillion over a decade.

People who want Congress to pass something: While the Trump plan solves some of the policy contradictions of his earlier promises with a “candy for everyone” approach to cutting taxes, that leaves it with even bigger political contradictions. The plan’s tilt toward businesses and the affluent means that Democratic support will be scarce to non existent.