Traders see emerging markets rising in 2022, but not until July

The MSCI gauge of emerging-market stocks has dropped more than 5% this year, trading near the lowest level since 2001 relative to US stocks.

Emerging-market assets are set to rise in 2022 as moderating inflation and accelerating growth trigger gains, but it won’t happen until the second half of the year.

That’s the consensus among investors like Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. who spoke with Bloomberg on the outlook for developing-nation stocks, bonds and currencies in the new year. As for specifics, they are looking for a Chinese equity rally and gains in local-currency bonds in countries such as Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.

A mid-year recovery would mark a turnaround for a sector that’s about to wrap up its