India worst-performing emerging market in past one month

India was the worst-performing emerging market (EM) in the past one month. Its bonds, currency and stocks underperformed most regional and EM peers since November on a rise in crude oil price and fears that the government might breach the fiscal deficit target. ICICI Securities says the recent weakness is over “concerns that are short-term in nature and are not structural impediments to growth, thereby providing entry points to long-term investors”. “Rational investor reaction to high valuations, concerns on elevated oil prices and fiscal strain, despite the optimism created by Moody’s sovereign credit rating upgrade, have resulted in the Nifty being in a consolidation mode since July, which we believe is positive for Indian equities in longer term, given the emerging stability in the long-term growth outlook,” it said.

Illustration: Ajay Mohanty

*Ending Dec 1; #For next two fiscals; **One-year forward; EPS: Earnings per share; P/E: Price-earnings ratio; P/B: Price-to-book value ratio; RoE: Return on equity; bps: Basis points. Source: ICICI Securities