Wheat production is projected to be slightly lower in rabi season 2012-13. This is due to two reasons — farmers are facing cost pressures in cultivating wheat, and acreage under wheat is stagnant.
Talking to Business Standard, Indu Sharma, director of the Wheat Research Institute in Karnal, said, “Acreage is likely to remain stagnant this season and the yield is expected to be slightly lower than last year. The estimated area under wheat was 2.99 million hectares last year and keeping cognisance of the constant MSP (minimum support price) of wheat (Rs 1,285 per quintal), there is no expectation of increase in acreage. Wheat productivity is higher when the winter is strong and prolonged. A slight aberration in temperature can undermine the yield.”
The sharp increase in cost of diammonium phosphate (DAP) from Rs 470 per 50 kg last year to Rs 1,200 per 50 kg this year is also a discouraging factor for increase in acreage under wheat. The sowing of wheat, a major rabi crop, has been delayed in certain pockets (Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh are the major wheat producing states) due to late harvesting of paddy as an aftermath of delayed monsoon.
The information obtained from farmers in different states reveals that sowing is lagging by 5-20 days, depending on the size of the farms and availability of inputs.
According to Sharma, rabi 2011-12 was an exceptionally good year as the climate remained cool till the harvest of wheat. As a result, there was an unprecedented 7.5 per cent increase in yield.
Sharma said the decision on MSP of wheat may have a fallout in the next season because for the current season, farmers have already purchased seeds and other inputs and about 80 per cent sowing is over. This season, prices in the open market are higher by 20 per cent compared to the MSP, and these are likely to remain unchanged till harvest. This will benefit farmers, although farmers in Punjab and Haryana largely depend on government procurement.
Farmers in various districts of Punjab and Haryana said they may have to look for an alternative to wheat, as the crop was highly agrochemical intensive and the cost of agrochemicals was unviable for them. But the assured market of wheat makes them stick to growing wheat. They said they were expecting yields lesser than last year, as global warming takes a toll on farm productivity. Wheat is very sensitive to temperature fluctuations and a slight increase in temperature compared to last year may have substantial effect on the yield.
As the country is grappling with a buffer stock of wheat and the maintenance cost of storage is high, a moderate crop size may be welcome.
