A pragmatic tightrope walk

India's Ukraine move balances its principles with its interests

India’s decision to abstain, along with China and the United Arab Emirates, from a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a pragmatic move to balance principles against interests within limited options for diplomatic manoeuvre available to it. Given that abstinence cannot be interpreted to imply support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the move has enabled New Delhi to maintain its long-standing diplomatic stance on respecting territorial sovereignty without compromising a seven-decade legacy of relations with Russia. There are hard-nosed calculations involved since the bulk of India’s armed forces rely on Russian weaponry, so New Delhi is dependent on Moscow for spares and maintenance services as well as regular technology transfers. Russia has also been one of India’s largest and most reliable markets for tea, a destination that has grown in importance following US sanctions-related complications as regards Iran. India has also depended on Russian support in the Security Council in the dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir and would have viewed with concern the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on February 24 in the thick of the invasion. At the same time, India’s UN statement said “it was a matter of regret that the path of diplomacy was given up”, the language suggesting that New Delhi has gone much further in terms of diplomatic criticism of Russia’s action.

India’s abstention must be viewed also in terms of the nuanced response from the Western allies. The decision to impose full-blocking sanctions on Russia’s largest bank and Russian elites and their families from the Society for Worldwide Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment systems, impose new debt and equity restrictions on 13 critical Russian financial entities and restrict purchase of US military items, including those produced by in foreign nations using US software, will certainly pinch. At the same time, reflecting the mutual dependency of the relationship, gas supplies from Russia to Europe have not been disrupted, though flows through Ukraine may be impacted by Sunday’s attacks on pipelines and related facilities. Further, though Germany has stopped the certification of the Nord 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany, which was Moscow’s key strategy to bypass Ukraine as a conduit of gas supply to Europe, this does not imply that the project has been scrapped. The pipeline was completed last year and had been awaiting certification before coming online, which suggests that it could be revived if Russia and the West reach a mutually acceptable diplomatic solution.

India’s responses to the Ukraine crisis should not, however, stop at a skilful balancing act in the short term. At stake in the broader geopolitical realm is its position vis-à-vis the US and China. India’s strategic calculus in recent decades has been to strengthen its defence alliance with the US, a move that fit in with Washington’s own focus on the Indo-Pacific as a means of balancing China’s domination. The crisis in Europe, which is unlikely to be over anytime soon, could well result in a deflection of US attention and resources. With China flexing its muscles along the northern border, New Delhi needs to be well prepared for this exigency too.